2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 8

Armed Forces:  California -6.5 v. Air Force
Russell Athletic:  North Carolina -3.5 v. Baylor
Arizona:  Colorado State -3.5 v. Nevada
Texas:  LSU -7 v. Texas Tech

Bowl Season:  8-12

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 7

Military:  Navy -3 v. Pittsburgh 
Quick Lane:  Minnesota -4.5 v. Central Michigan

Bowl Season:  7-11

2016 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 6

St. Petersburg:  Marshall -5 v. Connecticut
Sun:  Washington State -2.5 v. Miami
Heart Of Dallas:  Washington -8.5 v. Southern Miss
Pinstripe:  Indiana -2.5 v. Duke
Independence Virginia Tech -14 v. Tulsa
Foster Farms:  UCLA -6.5 v. Nebraska

Bowl Season:  4-7

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 5

Yesterday was a bit of a disaster, eh?

Bahamas:  Western Michigan -4.5 v. Middle Tennessee State
Hawaii:  San Diego State -3 v. Cincinnati

Bowl Season:  3-7

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 4

Pointsettia:  Boise State -9.5 v. Northern Illinois
Go Daddy:  Bowling Green -7 v. Georgia Southern

Bowl Season:  3-5

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 3

Potato:  Utah State -6.5 v. Akron
Boca Raton:  Temple -2.5 v. Toledo

Bowl Season:  3-3

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 2

Miami Beach:  Western Kentucky -1.5 v. South Florida

Bowl Season:  3-2

2015 Final Ratings

As always, thank you for your patronage.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ExzxIJBd3zZ-IyqBYVDd-zSRXj3650jRvFbk5uo_uuY/edit?usp=sharing

Playoff teams all within the top 12 is reasonable.  If last year is any indication, it'll be a MSU v. Oklahoma final.

Florida State gets to play a bowl above their station based on resume.  As per usual.

The SOS tab has schedule strength for the full season and just the non-conference portion (OOC).  SEC bringing up the rear.

The comparison tab offers 4 different calculations for your viewing, and an average of the four.  They are:

-the normal ratings

-the normal ratings with a recency bias applied.  Wins later in the season mean more and wins earlier in the season mean less.

-the performance metric with a recency bias applied.  This one needs some work, as you'll see.  I used S&P as the model for projected performance this year, and wasn't happy with how it performed this season.  Might use another projection if it won't make the data entry difficult.

-"FCS" is a rating that removes a team's worst opponent and the corresponding result from a team's resume.  As the title implies, it was usually as simple as just removing a FCS team.

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 1

Lock of the week finishes 7-9-1.

17-20 last season.  40 to choose from this year.

New Mexico:  Arizona -9.5 v. New Mexico
Las Vegas:  Utah -2.5 v. BYU
Camellia:  Appalachian State -7.5 v. Ohio
Cure:  San Jose State -1.5 v. Georgia State
New Orleans:  Louisiana Tech -1.5 v. Arkansas State

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 15

One last time.  Last week's gambit didn't go as planned, and it's another season under 500.  I want to end on a positive note, and so to stop the rot I've decided to go with...Clemson?

Clemson -4.5 v. North Carolina

I'm happy to take Clemson favored by less than a TD.

Last week:

Ohio State -1 @ Michigan

Stanford -3.5 v. Notre Dame

Both incorrect, to bring me to 6-9-1 on the year.

2015 Ratings, Week 13

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YrdlcqUkWl-HnqqXKkHpM5ohwq_JaJ-mXPDrMet77Dc/edit?usp=sharing

Ohio State and Oklahoma make the leap over Michigan State due to quality road wins.

I'll be adding conference championship games officially this year.  They've taken on more importance since the playoff has come into being, and with the advent of 14-team conferences, the chances are good you'll be meeting a team with a superb resume from the other division.

Final ratings will be out before the first bowl games.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

Ohio State -1 @ Michigan
Stanford -3.5 v. Notre Dame

Ohio State is in disarray.  Notre Dame is crippled by injuries and has a terrible time with turnovers on the road.

Last week:  Oklahoma State v. Baylor, 77.5 under (incorrect)
Season:  6-7-1

2015 Ratings, Week 12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Eo_9bZkbYN8rjY1SEZgysFbigmlIEGyz6Spu_UMx2I4/edit?usp=sharing

Pretty thrilled.  The five teams I think have the best shot to make the playoff, Clemson, MSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Alabama, are all in the top 20.  Even Alabama's bye week didn't hurt them like it usually does every year.

And for all the bellyaching done all year about Baylor's schedule, look at Iowa's.  You'll have to scroll down a bit.  Sagarin "agrees" with me, having the teams at 65 and 62 respectively.  I saw a writer point out today that Iowa played Pitt, and even more humorously, Iowa State out of conference.  I guess it counts less if you play Iowa State in-conference.

If MSU had not lost to Nebraska, their coefficient would be a full .0700 ahead of Toledo.  They would be as far ahead of second as second is ahead of 35th.  Road wins and a SOS that improves leaps and bounds every week will do that.  I do hope that they don't suffer the fate of Central Florida:  finished first in 2013, currently 124th.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

I was a bit smug before last week's pick, and paid for it, going 6-14 overall.  Staying away from the spreads this week, but sticking with Baylor games.

Baylor @ Oklahoma State, total points 77.5 (Under)

Oklahoma State has a man's pass defense, Stidham is not 100% and Baylor on the road are factors that I think that keeps the game in the 30's.

Last week:  Baylor -2.5 v. Oklahoma (incorrect)
Season:  6-6-1

Hey, when you're right 50% of the time, you're wrong 50% of the time.

2015 Ratings, Week 11

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zT8mIHRlwT6tXAA6xkUN0pOOi0QVmjWn2NiAAwOEhYQ/edit?usp=sharing

Stanford loses, flip flops with Notre Dame.

Boise loses to New Mexico, plummets to 86th.  New Mexico is the lowest bowl eligible team at 109th.  That's so Bob Davie.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

Baylor -2.5 v. Oklahoma

 

Baylor opened at -6 and has been bet down. This game is being overthought.  Here is what to consider:

Is Mike Stoops Oklahoma's DC?  Yes.

Has Mike Stoops figured out how to slow down Baylor?  Unlikely.

Is the game in Waco?  Yes.

Thanks for lowering the line, people.  It's 2015, and it's Oklahoma that has the burden of proof.

Last week:  Mississippi -10 v. Arkansas (incorrect)

Season: 6-5-1

1-1 these last two weeks, which is about what I expected.

2015 Ratings, Week 10

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yx0cDLWOymlFMO1Q3OYGVER6x0JVYt5nGqyd1TEAl0s/edit?usp=sharing

The Beano Cook edition.

This week brings with it the PRI+ metric, which adds a margin of victory calculation as a modifier.  This would explain Bowling Green and Houston's high placement.  They're not only burying teams, but burying them by a much wider margin that their statistical profile would suggest.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

Mississippi -10 v. Arkansas

I don't think much of Mississippi. I think it will be hilarious if they win the SEC West.  I do think they're 10 points better than Arkansas at home, however.

Last week:  Michigan -14 @ Minnesota (correct)

Season:  6-4-1

2015 Ratings, Week 9

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OtPLML1Oc9SIGPl3yv6WanXrY3SUM30M9sd7HeogIlo/edit?usp=sharing

These are the ratings people should be waiting for on Tuesday nights.  Not devised by some AD's in a room somewhere in Dallas, moving the goalposts as they go and rendered useless by next week.  Ratings arrived at using empirical data.

Road wins by teams with quality resumes were the biggest movers this week.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Over .500 for the first time in a couple of seasons.  Weakest slate of the season, and weakest that I can recall.


Michigan -14 @ Minnesota


I think Michigan will win outright, but I don't think Michigan's offense is good enough to be laying two touchdowns on the road, at night, against a rival with a sound defense and a team that will be fired up after losing their coach.


Last week:  Kansas State @ Texas Total Points: 50.5 (Under) (Correct)
Season:  5-4-1

2015 Ratings, Week 8

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G9za84Gy6dHA79sZh-vYbtUTzkdIb-YozPgWkmb8jvQ/edit?usp=sharing

Top 5 Temple and Memphis.  What a season.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

Kansas State @ Texas Total Points:  50.5. Taking the under.

Normally don't go off the top 25 on games unless it involves MSU or Michigan, but since Washington-Stanford is off the board for some reason, I'll use this in it's place.  The forecast calls for prodigious rain here in Austin Saturday which won't help these struggling offenses get to 51 points.

Last week:  Stanford -6.5 v. UCLA (correct)

Season:  4-4-1

That should have been my lock of the season.

2015 Ratings, Week 7

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1B1RINLNHcZCRaoiQuQbVIHBgPQoYkF4QswHzb_azEiE/edit?usp=sharing

I've rarely, if ever, been so pleased with ratings so early in a season.  Of the 6 teams I consider real contenders for the playoffs, for whatever reason: MSU, OSU, Stanford, Alabama, TCU and Clemson, only Clemson is outside of the top 40.  Although historically, Alabama has dropped through the trap door after their SoCon Challenge game.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Stanford -6.5 v. UCLA

 UCLA is the embodiment of the Pac-12:  mercurial and hard to predict.  Jim Mora is 0-4 v. Stanford and has a freshman QB on the road v. a veteran team.  I like Stanford to win rather easily, even though I will see little of this game.

Last week:

Toledo -14.5 v. Kent State (correct)
Season:  3-4-1

2015 PRI Ratings, Week 6

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RnO1XTqwC3a0elH6tJSEqlF6if2Vp_f7T2e_imVNDcs/edit?usp=sharing

UMass' schedule is pretty high, and Texas' blows it away.  The highest I've ever calculated.

I'm pretty pleased with these thus far.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

Toledo -14.5 v. Kent State

The Rockets are ranked, which means this is eligible for selection.  Toledo doesn't have the most robust offense, which is why this is barely 2 TD's, but Kent State isn't all that good.

Last week:  

Georgia -2 v. Alabama (correct)

Wisconsin -7 v. Iowa (incorrect)

Season:  2-4-1. I think Wisconsin is on the "do not lock" list from now on.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 5

Very quickly since I'm on the road again:

Georgia -2 v. Alabama
Wisconsin -7 v. Iowa

Last week:

TCU - 6.5 @ Texas Tech (correct)
Texas -3 v. Oklahoma State (push)

Season:  1-3-1

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

When it all goes wrong, best to believe in Gambler's Fallacy and double down.  It's a double barrel pick this week.

TCU -6.5 @ Texas Tech

I'm taking the points in a shootout with two teams who have questions on defense.  And Lubbock is not easy to go to.

Oklahoma State -3 @ Texas

We're going to find out a lot from this game.  Does Texas have a offense?  Does Oklahoma State?  Is Cal really that good.  The road team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings, and a spread so low seems like a good play here.

Last week:  Duke -3.5 v. Northwestern (incorrect)
Season:  0-3

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

This is not going well.

Duke -3.5 v. Northwestern

I like Duke at home by a TD.  Some very good value out there this week, as there have been some wild overreactions to pedestrian performances.  However, since those involve road dogs, I think this is the safer play.  And Northwestern ain't winning jack in those helmets.

Last week:  Florida State -25.5 v. South Florida (incorrect)

Season: 0-2

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

Florida State -25.5 v. South Florida

Last week:  Boise State -12 v. Washington (incorrect)

Season: 0-1

2015 Lock of the Week, Week 1

Boise State -12 v. Washington

Last season:  7-14-1

Playoff Final Pick

Oregon -6 v. Ohio State

Take the points in a shootout.

Bowl Season:  16-20

A look back at my preseason predictions will wrap up the season.  Always a treat!

2014 Bowl-o-Rama, 1/2-4

So these picks are the opposite of last year.  I'd happily have that to have that Cotton Bowl experience again.

Armed Forces:  Pittsburgh -3.5 v. Houston
Gator:  Tennessee -3 v. Iowa
Alamo:  UCLA -1.5 v. Kansas State
Cactus:  Washington -6.5 v. Oklahoma State
Birmingham:  Florida -7 v. East Carolina
Mobile:  Toledo -4 v. Arkansas State

Bowl Season:  14-17