2018 PRI Ratings, Week 9

I wonder what sort of surge Wazoo would have (up huge this week) if they win out and win the Pac-12 as a one loss team.

As we move into November and get the inevitable tedious (and dishonest) discussion of "who has the better resume", it's a discussion that is as clear as mud this year and more opaque than in previous years.  By the end of the month, you're going to be deciding between a bunch of teams whose "best win" is probably going to be someone with 2-4 losses.  Conference title games this year are going to be less likely to offer more clarity as some of these divisions are real dross.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Purdue +2 @ Michigan State

Let's look at things in a vacuum:

Team A is on the ascent with aggressive play calling (a in-season adjustment), is generally healthy, but with the caveat they are coming off a huge win at home against the #2 team in the country and must go on the road

Team B is crippled by injuries to any group of offensive playmakers you choose, may not have their starting QB, the OL is beat up, as is the secondary.  Plus the playcalling is unimaginative and pedestrian.

Now consider that team A's offensive philosophy is tailor-made to take advantage of the weaknesses of Team B's defensive schemes.

And team A is getting points?  This is a no-brainer.

Last week: Oklahoma -8 @ TCU (correct)

Lock:  5-2-1

Season 65-70-3

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 8

Northwestern and their success on the road are really the kingmaker so far.

If you look at the predicitons I sent back in August, I had Georgia losing at LSU, and Ohio State losing at Purdue.  My prognostication then was:

>I believe the Committee would select:  Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame

And if we get:

13-0 Clemson

12-1 Georgia (SEC champ)

12-1 Alabama (loses to Georgia in the SECCG)

12-0 Notre Dame (funny how the lack of a "13th data point" doesn't hurt them!)

I still think those four end up being your playoff.  Obviously, still a ways to go, with the most anticipated Cocktail Party in years, Alabama/LSU, and Notre Dame with trips to the aforementioned Northwestern and USC, although the latter looks like they're toast.

I do think a debate between 12-1 Big Ten Champion and 12-1 Big 12 champion would be an interesting one, and one that probably wouldn't have a wrong answer.  Central Florida is well on the outside looking in if they finish undefeated despite what would be a 25 game winning streak.  Again, and also through no real fault of their own, that schedule isn't good enough.  The good news if you're looking for such a thing:  a four-team playoff that omits all three teams mentioned in this paragraph probably leads to playoff expansion sooner rather than later.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

Top 25 sportbook favorites have taken an absolute beating the last two weeks, going 11-23-2.  They have been notoriously slow to react to the reality of certain teams but it's more glaring this year than usual.

Oklahoma -8 @ TCU

Like with so many picks, the question I ask is can a TCU team with injuries at QB, OL and in the secondary keep up with an Oklahoma team that is probably going to score 35+.  An Oklahoma team that had two weeks to stew over a rivalry loss and has improved at DC, although the perception of their defensive struggles are a bit overdone.  TCU is also 2-7 in their last 9 ATS.

Last week: Florida -7 @ Vanderbilt (correct)

Lock:  4-2-1

Season 56-64-3

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 7

(Ignore the delta tab this week)

Well, the Colley Matrix and I agree regarding Notre Dame, who was also #1 around this time last year.  I'm interested to see how their resume holds up going forward with games at top-5 Northwestern and top 20 USC.

Here I was thinking Michigan State was the worst 4-2 team I've ever seen, but had they not cocked it up in the desert against ASU, they'd be number 1 by a substantial margin.  At least other advanced numbers think of them highly, although more in the 15-40 range.

Nice schedule strength, American.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Florida -7 @ Vanderbilt

The books have this at a TD for two reasons, I think:

-Felipe Franks on the road

-A letdown spot after two big wins

However, defense travels, and since Florida's is back to their usual standard, I like that matchup against a Vanderbilt offense that is trending negatively.

Last week: Wisconsin -17 v. Nebraska (push)

Lock:  3-2-1

Season 51-53-3

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

Ratings will come out after week 7.

Prepare to enter the Chalk Zone.

Wisconsin -17  v. Nebraska

Wisconsin at home, at night, vs. a bad Nebraska team seems like a safe bet.

Last week:  Central Florida -13 v. Pittsburgh (correct)

Lock:  3-2

Season 43-43-1