Wednesday, October 12, 2011

PRI Ratings - Week 6

Finally, the 2011 debut:




Things tend to even out. Tulsa at 2-3 is shocking, but look at things from this perspective:

It's a formula based on the RPI with 50% of a team's score based on schedule strength. As you can see below, Tulsa is #1, which makes sense as they've played Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise, who are a combined 15-0. As Tulsa goes into their conference schedule, that part of their score is going to drop. Of Tulsa's 5 games, 1 of them is a road win, which are rewarded more than home wins are. That ratio will drop as the season goes on. San Jose State is a similar situation.

Boise's willingness to go on the road thrice, which is something more akin to what a MAC program would do, against a decent (29th) schedule has them as #1. They're also helped by not playing 1-AA opposition, which I treat as a vacated win, which is why LSU ranks so low despite a very impressive resume to this point. Having such a thing is damaging this early in the season. Key word being early.

To sum, a team is probably rated right now where it is due to three factors:

1. Did they play on the road multiple times
2. What is the strength of their current schedule
3. Did they play any 1-AA teams.

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