Friday, October 4, 2019

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 6





Utah State +27.5 @ LSU

I'm taking a huge group of 5 underdog on the road against one of the best teams in the country.  Let me explain:

-Teams favored by what I consider to be Super Large spreads (≥27 points) do not successfully cover the later a season gets

-Of the eight projections I look at for each game, each one has Utah State covering.  While the standard deviation of those projections is not ideal for locking, all of them being in agreement is a good trend:  of the 91 games tracked so far, only one has had all the models miss.

-The statistical matchup does not suggest this is a 4TD spread against such a disciplined team like Utah State.


Last week:  Wisconsin -24.5 v. Northwestern (incorrect)
Season 1-3-1 (-$230)
Overall: 48-43-2 ($70)

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