I'm trying out a different presentation format since I'll be sharing all three of my calculations right from the start.
PRI - the classic formula
PRI+ - includes expected margin of victory vs. actual
EFF - includes each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies as determined by ESPN FPI
I have the document sorted by EFF as that clearly seems to be the more accurate reading of the season at the moment. Otherwise, I think this would have been too early in the season to begin calculations with early season byes/FCS games/insane schedule strength/unusual home-road splits skewing things even more than they historically have early in the season.
Will EFF become the main model? Time will tell but I'm pleased with how it looks so far after one week of use. It still throws out some wackiness like #11 Tulsa, but definitely places Rice in a more accurate (yet still inflated) position.
Still, the old formula gave us #1 SMU v. #2 Tulsa in the game of last weekend, so there is that.
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