Friday, September 25, 2020

2020 Lock Of The Week - Week 4

 After 18 games to choose from over the first 2-3 weeks, a whopping 19 this week.  And no need to go off the grid to find value (not that there are any this week).


Oklahoma

28.0

Kansas State

Florida

14.0

Mississippi

Auburn

7.5

Kentucky

Central Florida

27.5

East Carolina

ULLAF

11.5

Georgia Southern

Pittsburgh

3.0

Louisville

LSU

16.5

Mississippi State

Texas

18.5

Texas Tech

Cincinnati

13.0

Army

Oklahoma State

7.0

West Virginia

Georgia

28.0

Arkansas

Alabama

27.5

Missouri

Texas A&M

30.5

Vanderbilt

Miami (FL)

11.5

Florida State

Tennessee

4.0

South Carolina

Virginia Tech

7.0

North Carolina State

BYU

14.0

Troy

ULM

10.0

UTEP

Baylor

17.5

Kansas



I'm still not trusting my model consensus.  It continues to be very bearish but with a wide solution of margins, and I'm just not going to blindly lean into 11 underdogs picked under those conditions.  So when in doubt:

Baylor -17.5 v Kansas

Just fade a really bad team.  And Kansas is pretty bad, remember Baylor was only getting 4 against a Houston team with a really bad defense.

Last week:  Western Kentucky -14 v. Liberty (correct)

Lock 2-0
Season overall 7-11

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