Week 6 F/+ Comparison

Comparing the Football Outsiders F/+ rankings to my own:

The biggest differences early on this season mostly come down to the differences in how FCS teams are treated. I treat them as vacated wins, whereas F/+ counts them for their statistical comparisons. The influence of that difference should wane as the season progresses.

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PRI Ratings, Week 6

With 6 weeks down, now is a good time to release the first set of rankings for the season. At this point, teams that played a strong non-conference schedule or traveled on the road (for the most part) are going to have better scores than teams who stayed at home and feasted on cream puffs.

The ratings like early season darlings Louisiana-Monroe. I know, Kentucky is up pretty high for a 1-win team. There's a reason for that:

The combined records for Kentucky's opponents this year is a riduculous 28-2.

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 6

First of all, my first set of rankings will be out Sunday, early afternoon.

I'd be doing better if I were playing craps right now, but all is not lost.  Let's end a two-week skid.

Mississippi State -10 @ Kentucky.  Kentucky is pretty bad, particularly on offense.

Last week:  Nebraska -11 v. Wisconsin (incorrect) 

Season:  2-3

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 5

It's a crappy slate of games, and a crappy slate of lines.  I will go with:

Nebraska -11 v. Wisconsin.

I don't trust Nebraska a whole lot, but I trust them to put up enough points to cover against a pedestrian Wisconsin team.

Last week:  Florida State -14 v. Clemson (incorrect)

Dr. Saturday sums up my thoughts on last week nicely:

"So, here's what happened for those who had moved on to better things on a Saturday night: Florida State, which racked up 667 yards, led 49-31 late. Clemson, still trying hard, had a fourth-and-goal with less than 3 minutes left. Tajh Boyd's throwback pass went through a Florida State defender's hands, to Brandon Ford for the Clemson touchdown. For the uninitiated, that's known as a backdoor cover, also termed "a kick in the shorts."

The lesson as always, if Clemson is involved, stay away.

Season:  2-2

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 4

We attempt to continue the momentum by playing a most dangerous game:

Florida State -14 v. Clemson



This is not a great weekend for betting, but when there are two top-10 teams facing off, and one team is a big favorite other the other, the favorite is a pretty safe bet normally.  The ACC, and Clemson is particular, is not normal, and who knows how much of that spread is FLORIDA STATE IS BACK, BABY, so I may look pretty dumb Saturday night.  Still, going to go with this one.

Last week:  Louisville -3 v. North Carolina (correct, barely).

Season:  2-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 3

Louisville -3 v. North Carolina

Similar to last week.  3 points seems rather narrow for Louisville, at home, against a team with a questionable defense.

Last week:  Cincinnati -4.5 v. Buffalo (correct).

Season: 1-1

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week - Week 2

Early this week because I'm picking the Thursday night game:

Cincinnati -4.5 v. Pittsburgh

Last week:  Georgia -37.5 v. Buffalo (incorrect).

I knew that was a lot of points.

Season: 0-1