For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 8

Oregon State -10 v. Utah.  The trend of picking against teams with terrible offenses continues.  I almost picked Michigan by a similar line, but I haven't seen a snap of them since the first half of the Alabama game and have no clue how their offense stacks up against the MSU defense.  MSU could be shut out for the first time since 2000, which was also against Michigan.

Last week:  Notre Dame v. Stanford Total Points:  44, Under.  (Correct)  I think the refs totally jobbed Stanford here, but a win's a win.

Season:  4-3

Week 7 F/+ Comparison

PRI Ratings, Week 7

Looking at that top 20, it's not too far off from reality.  Yeah, those Sun Belt teams are pretty high, and Michigan State is still living off of a difficult early season schedule and a couple of road wins.



Kentucky's SOS is still insane, and it's no wonder Southern Miss is 0-6.  At the other end, lots of people are praising Larry Coker for a good start at UTSA, but that's bound to happen when you play lots of of FCS and D-II schools.  I can't recall seeing extremes like this at either end.



Biggest gain from Week 11: Northwestern 115 -> 54 61 places
Biggest loss from Week 11: UAB 43 -> 75 32 places

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Another week with difficult lines.  Vegas is doing a solid job this year.  So let's stay away from the spread.

Notre Dame v. Stanford, total points 44.  I'm taking the Under.  Both teams have good defenses.  Both teams have inept offenses.  Ergo, a low-scoring affair.

Last week:  Mississippi State -10 @ Kentucky (correct)

Season:  3-3

Week 6 F/+ Comparison

Comparing the Football Outsiders F/+ rankings to my own:

The biggest differences early on this season mostly come down to the differences in how FCS teams are treated. I treat them as vacated wins, whereas F/+ counts them for their statistical comparisons. The influence of that difference should wane as the season progresses.

Thank you for your support.

PRI Ratings, Week 6

With 6 weeks down, now is a good time to release the first set of rankings for the season. At this point, teams that played a strong non-conference schedule or traveled on the road (for the most part) are going to have better scores than teams who stayed at home and feasted on cream puffs.

The ratings like early season darlings Louisiana-Monroe. I know, Kentucky is up pretty high for a 1-win team. There's a reason for that:

The combined records for Kentucky's opponents this year is a riduculous 28-2.

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 6

First of all, my first set of rankings will be out Sunday, early afternoon.

I'd be doing better if I were playing craps right now, but all is not lost.  Let's end a two-week skid.

Mississippi State -10 @ Kentucky.  Kentucky is pretty bad, particularly on offense.

Last week:  Nebraska -11 v. Wisconsin (incorrect) 

Season:  2-3