2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 3

That pick last night was looking good for 3 quarters.  Too bad they play four.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl:  Central Florida -7 v. Ball State

Bowl Season:  1-2

Bowl-o-rama, Day 2

BYU - 3 v. San Diego State

Bowl season:  1-1

2012-13 Bowl-o-rama, Day 1

Let the feast begin with a couple of entertaining games.  And don't forget about today's 1-AA semifinal on ESPNU.

New Mexico Bowl:  Arizona -9 v. Nevada
Idaho Potato Bowl:  Utah State -10.5 v. Toledo

Last year:  15-20

Final 2012 Ratings - Comparisons

At the close of the season, I decided to compare my ratings with some others that are floating around out there:

-Football Outsiders F/+ ratings has been compared throughout the season since Week 7:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus2012




-Colley's Bias Free Matrix Rankings are the only portion of the BCS computer component whose methodology is made public:  http://www.colleyrankings.com/



-Jeff Sagarin's schedule strength is compared:



Interesting looks to be sure.  It's nice to see a methodology that took a little effort to create beyond being some fat hack making ad hoc arguments.

Bowl-o-rama begins Saturday. Picks everyday. I thank you for your readership, as always.

Final 2012 Ratings

In an effort to make things easier to consume, the final ratings of the season are broken up into a couple of posts.  Coming early next week will be the comparison with F/+ rankings from Football Outsiders, plus a comparison with the Colley Ratings Matrix, the only part of the BCS computers made public and a comparison with Jeff Sagarin's Strength of Schedule calculations.



Bold X's are BCS teams. MTSU and LaTech being the highest ranked teams not going bowling aren't surprises. Air Force is the lowest-rated bowl team at 107th, which is also not unusual.

If you removed any sort of identifiers from the resumes of Florida State, Louisville and Northern Illinois, they would appear to be the same team.  Yet, Northern Illinois is being vilified as receiving some sort of undeserved charity due to their loss against Iowa, while Louisville is there after winning a league that's at best equal to the MAC, while losing at home to a crappy UConn team.  It's lazy, dishonest punditry like what has been heard this past week that caused me to start these ratings in the first place.

I'd be inclined to name Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon and Florida as a 4-team playoff based on their resumes here.  I'm hard-pressed to include Alabama (although I can see the argument for them over K-State), who are only in ahead of Oregon due to:

a)losing one week before and
b)only falling three spots in the polls after their loss when Oregon fell four

Alabama's strength of schedule really took a beating over the last month of the season.  Western Carolina and Auburn did them no favors, nor did fading Mississippi State.

Biggest gain from Week 6 to Week 14, Northwestern, 81 places
Biggest loss from Week 6 to Week 14, Tulane, 89 places

Finally, a look at each team's average placement throughout the season:

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 14

The final lock of the season.  But there will be 35 bowl picks! 

Lots of pressure here, I'm going for my third consecutive year of 10 wins.

Boise State v. Nevada Total Points = 59, Under  Boise's defense is stout, but their offense isn't effective enough to push the total up to 60 points.

Last week: Northern Illinois -21 @ Eastern Michigan.  (Correct)

Season:  9-4

Week 13 Ratings

Always sad to come to the end of any season, even one like this one which has been sorta "meh".  Final ratings come after the Army-Navy game.





Largest gain from Week 12:  Baylor 79 -> 41, 38 places

Largest loss from Week 12:  Florida International 52 -> 81, 29 places

Cristobal should have jumped on that Rutgers train.