2013 PRI Ratings, Week 7

The first official ratings of the season.  Central Florida #1?  That's a weird one...

A new feature this year will be including correlations as a way to better explain the results.

1.  Rankings-to-Schedule Strength
2.  Rankings-to-Road Win total (check back tomorrow)
3.  Rankings-to-S&P comparison (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa)
4.  Rankings-to-Colley Matrix comparison (http://www.colleyrankings.com/)
5.  S&P-to-Colley

The former two can be found on the PRI Sheet, the latter 3 on the Comparsion Sheet

Overall, I'm pleased that there is a general positive correlation with both the S&P and Colley formulas, and it will be interesting to see if there's improvement as the season continues.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Stone Cold Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Yes, it's already week 7.

Northern Illinois -23 v. Terry Bowden's Akron

This is a large spread, but NIU has outscored Akron 38-10 in their last three meetings.  You also don't just walk into DeKalb and expect to keep it close if you're Akron.

Last week:  Oklahoma -9 v. TCU (incorrect, back door cover)

Season:  3-2-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 6

I am making this pick on the road this week. I pick the games involving top 25 teams just for fun and this week, boy, am I taking a lot of chalk.

Oklahoma -9 v. Texas Christian

A couple of stout defenses will be on the field in Norman, but having seen a lot of Treyvone Boykin, I wonder how TCU is going to score 10 points in any game. Ponderous and inefficient don't mix well together.

Last week: Miami (FL) -18.5 v. South Florida (correct)

Season: 4-1-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 5

Miami (FL) -18.5 @ South Florida

Double digit road favorites aren't always a wise play, but I'm having trouble seeing how an awful South Florida team can keep it within 3 scores here.

Last week:  Stanford -7.5 v. Arizona State (correct)

Season:  2-1-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 4

The choices were pretty thin this week.  Lots of big spreads out there.

Stanford -7.5 v. Arizona State.

Arizona State wasn't particularly efficient or explosive against Wisconsin last week, poor qualities to have against Stanford's defense.

Last week:  Louisville -14 v. Kentucky.  That was a push.

Season:  1-1-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 3

We'll stay away from the huge spreads this week.

Louisville -14 v. Kentucky.

Overrated as Louisville may be, Kentucky is neither at their level or a good football team, period.

Last week:  Baylor -27 v. Buffalo (correct)

Season:  1-1

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 2

It's an ominous sign when you consider four bets (Alabama -21, Western Michigan +28, Florida State -10.5 were the considerations) and the one you pick is the wrong one.  We soldier on.

Baylor -27 v. Buffalo.

Buffalo's Khalil Mack is awesome, but two straight road games for Buffalo is tough.  Plus, Baylor's offense is more potent and its going to be 100 degrees in Waco Saturday.  27 is a lot to lay but that's nothing for Baylor.

Baylor a 4 TD favorite, welcome to college football in 2013.

Last week:  LSU v. TCU Total points:  under 50 (incorrect)

Season:  0-1