2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

So this happened:




Yikes.  For this week:

Baylor -7.5 @ West Virginia

West Virginia's defense is still pretty porous:  92nd in yards per play allowed.  They're improved, but they also had their own come from behind victory last week against far lesser opposition.  At least I can recall that sequence; parts of Saturday are a bit fuzzy, may need to cut back on the 100-proof Trons next year.

Last week:  Georgia -3 @ Missouri

                    East Carolina -16 @ South Florida

 

Both incorrect.  Season:  2-7-1

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Another double barrel week, and I made the decision to bet on the Georgia game before Gurley got suspended.  I think I was due.

Georgia -3 @ Missouri
East Carolina -16 @ South Florida

Last week:

Alabama -6.5 @ Mississippi (incorrect)

Kansas State -12.5 v. Texas Tech (correct)

Season:  2-5-1

2014 Ratings, Week 6

Here are the first ratings of the season.  No idea when updates will be coming, the next one will be after week 8 due to travel.  I'll probably begin correlations that week as well.  As shown last year, this system rewards winning on the road, and the teams close to the top have multiple road wins through six weeks of play.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

Yes, there was a lock made last week I just forgot to post it.

It's another double barrel week:

Alabama -6.5 @ Mississippi

I expect a comfortable Alabama win.  Mississippi is perhaps the most overrated team in the country, based on SEC and a good fourth quarter against a Boise State team that lost to Air Force last week.  Plus, Saban had a bye week.

Kansas State -12.5 v. Texas Tech

TxTech's QB is injured and may not play, their defense is woeful, and the entire team lacks discipline.  K-State is the opposite of those three things, and the game is in Manhattan.

Last week:  Stanford -7 @ Washington (push)  Way to stop the rot.

Season: 1-4-1

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

Michigan State -45.5 v. Eastern Michigan

Vegas is expecting the score of this game to be 49-3.  That's definitely on the table, and Eastern is the worst team in 1-A according to Sagarin at the moment, but this is just too many points to pass up.

Last Week:  UCLA -7 v. Texas (incorrect).  Jerry Neuheisel...knew as soon as he showed up that lock was busted.

Season:  1-3

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

Not the best week if you were a fan of the sport.

A thin Saturday slate means there is a thin selection of appealing lines this week.

UCLA -7 v. Texas

Frankly, this is a narrow line because people are, justifiably, unimpressed with the Bruins.  I'll take that narrow line because Texas' offense is inert at the moment.  But I'm not brimming with confidence here.

Last week:  Michigan v. Notre Dame.  Total points 56, taking the over.   (Incorrect)

Season:  1-2

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

Week 2 is fraught with peril, with loads of overreaction to one game that featured months of preparation.  Dangerous, tantalizing point spreads out there.

So I'm avoiding them entirely.

Michigan v. Notre Dame.  Total points 56, taking the over.

Game seems primed for a shootout.

Last week: 1-1.  Auburn yay, FSU nay.