2014 PRI Ratings, Week 11

Strange to see Oklahoma as our massively overrated team of 2014.

Big wins have moved some schools up into the upper tier of things.  Might make me reconsider my stance on Arizona State and Ohio State, but boy did they suffer a bad loss when they lost.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

Arizona State -2.5 v. Notre Dame

Two clown frauds meet in the desert.  I trust Notre Dame for two reasons:  coaching advantage favors ND and the last time Arizona State played teams that have something resembling a offense, they gave up 100 combined over back-to-back weeks.  Give up 66 to UCLA?  Bet the other way.

Last week:

Georgia v. Florida total points 47 under

Kansas State -11.5 v. Oklahoma State

Season:  5-10-1.  Who would have thought Florida could score 38 in a SEC game?

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 10

Now with the PRI+ performance metric.  This calculation lessens the impact of schedule strength has more emphasis on record and a margin of victory component.  You can see the difference between the two formulas on the Delta+ tab.

I expect a sizeable fall for the Mississippi schools next week, both of whom have FCS opposition on the docket this week.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

Georgia v. Florida total points 47 under

Kansas State -11.5 v. Oklahoma State

Two of the teams above lack a offense, making these smart plays. 

 

Last week:

Mississippi State -15 @ Kentucky

Michigan @ Michigan State total points 48.5 under

Syracuse @ Clemson total points 47.5 under

2-1 last week means 4-9-1 for the season.  Clawing back to respectability.

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 9

The Massey Index culls data from 101 different computer rankings.  All 101 computers had four SEC teams in the top 4.  Obviously, these are not included in that index, but I'm still pretty pleased with what I am seeing so far.

The new methodology I experimented with in the spring will be posted next week.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

It's a triple barrel week, because when you're the Angel Of Death, why not.

Mississippi State -15 @ Kentucky

Michigan @ Michigan State total points 48.5 under

Syracuse @ Clemson total points 47.5 under

Yeah, betting on Michigan State and Clemson games. When you're 2-8-1 on the season, again, why not?

Last week:  Baylor -7.5 @ West Virginia (incorrect)

2014 Ratings, Week 8

Pretty volatile results from Week 6 to now, as you'll be able to see on the Delta tab.  Teams adding road wins to their resume tend to have that happen.

The numbers like Mississippi State more than I do, and agree with the analytics crowd on Ohio State. Very curious to see what happens when I add the performance element in a couple of weeks.