2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 5

Central Florida -13 v. Pittsburgh

Yards per play Offense/Defense

Central Florida 7.8(4th)/5.7 (76th)

Pittsburgh  5.2 (84th)/6.0 (87th)

I suppose this line is seemingly so low due to assumptions about P5 talent v. G5 talent, but Pitt is a 5-6 win team at best.  Pitt wouldn't be a 2 scores or less dog on the road against a lot of teams, so I think this line presents great value.

Last week:  Boston College -7 @ Purdue (incorrect)

Lock:  2-2

Season 34-34

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

21 games to pick this week which should go a long way towards seeing how successful this season will be.  I like the underdogs to howl at night.  But not for my lock.

Boston College -7 @ Purdue

I watched BC's game last Thursday at Wake and came away impressed.  I think "the best 0-3 team ever" Purdue will have trouble with the bruising run game of BC, negating the latter's second straight week on the road.  

Last week:  Georgia -33 v. Middle Tennessee State (correct)

Lock:  2-1

Season 26-22

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

I really didn't like a lot this week, and what I did like (Oklahoma/Texas) got bet too high this morning.  So much so that I actually flipped to Iowa State.  In the end, I just stopped overthinking things:

Georgia -33 v. Middle Tennessee State

The latter is pretty bad on defense, allowing 35 to Vandy and 37 to UT-Martin.  That's all I got.

Last week:  Clemson -12 @ Texas A&M (incorrect, a near-upset being the worst kind of incorrect)

Lock:  1-1

Season 16-15

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

I hate taking this much chalk.

Clemson -12 @ Texas A&M

Jimbo and his complicated passing game two games in seems like a dicey proposition against Clemson's defense.  I also really like Stanford over USC, but I feel like I lock that game every year.

Last week:  Ohio State -38.5 v. Oregon State (correct)

Lock:  1-0

Season 8-8 (would have been 9-8 had I remembered to pick the Penn State game)

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 1

Last year I picked overall at a 57% success rate, but just .500 for the locks.  The former was my best such effort.  Hopefully those among us who live in states with more progressive attitudes towards gambling can use these to make some money.

Ohio State -38.5 v. Oregon State

I'd normally bet the other way on such a big number, but Ohio State may be one of the three best teams in the country, while Oregon State is one of the three worst power 5 programs with a brand new, first time head coach (and Ohio State will play 2 such programs this year).  Something like 52-6 is definitely on the table.

2018 Predictions

Back at it again, although with the NCAA doing away with RPI I too may be trying to figure out how to include an efficiency component to things, probably at the end of the season.




Glancing at the "Playoff Contenders" tab, I would select:  Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma and Georgia.

I believe the Committee would select:  Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame.

2017 Predictions Revisited

Virtually the same as last year, missing by 2.09 games v. 2.07.  Usually it's the group of 5 that skews the averages, but I really did well predicting the MAC West and Mountain West.

I did set a new record for most games wrong on a team in Fresno State.  Doubt Jeff Tedford early in his tenure at your own peril, I guess.