2018 PRI Ratings, Week 7

(Ignore the delta tab this week)

Well, the Colley Matrix and I agree regarding Notre Dame, who was also #1 around this time last year.  I'm interested to see how their resume holds up going forward with games at top-5 Northwestern and top 20 USC.

Here I was thinking Michigan State was the worst 4-2 team I've ever seen, but had they not cocked it up in the desert against ASU, they'd be number 1 by a substantial margin.  At least other advanced numbers think of them highly, although more in the 15-40 range.

Nice schedule strength, American.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Florida -7 @ Vanderbilt

The books have this at a TD for two reasons, I think:

-Felipe Franks on the road

-A letdown spot after two big wins

However, defense travels, and since Florida's is back to their usual standard, I like that matchup against a Vanderbilt offense that is trending negatively.

Last week: Wisconsin -17 v. Nebraska (push)

Lock:  3-2-1

Season 51-53-3

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

Ratings will come out after week 7.

Prepare to enter the Chalk Zone.

Wisconsin -17  v. Nebraska

Wisconsin at home, at night, vs. a bad Nebraska team seems like a safe bet.

Last week:  Central Florida -13 v. Pittsburgh (correct)

Lock:  3-2

Season 43-43-1

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 5

Central Florida -13 v. Pittsburgh

Yards per play Offense/Defense

Central Florida 7.8(4th)/5.7 (76th)

Pittsburgh  5.2 (84th)/6.0 (87th)

I suppose this line is seemingly so low due to assumptions about P5 talent v. G5 talent, but Pitt is a 5-6 win team at best.  Pitt wouldn't be a 2 scores or less dog on the road against a lot of teams, so I think this line presents great value.

Last week:  Boston College -7 @ Purdue (incorrect)

Lock:  2-2

Season 34-34

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

21 games to pick this week which should go a long way towards seeing how successful this season will be.  I like the underdogs to howl at night.  But not for my lock.

Boston College -7 @ Purdue

I watched BC's game last Thursday at Wake and came away impressed.  I think "the best 0-3 team ever" Purdue will have trouble with the bruising run game of BC, negating the latter's second straight week on the road.  

Last week:  Georgia -33 v. Middle Tennessee State (correct)

Lock:  2-1

Season 26-22

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

I really didn't like a lot this week, and what I did like (Oklahoma/Texas) got bet too high this morning.  So much so that I actually flipped to Iowa State.  In the end, I just stopped overthinking things:

Georgia -33 v. Middle Tennessee State

The latter is pretty bad on defense, allowing 35 to Vandy and 37 to UT-Martin.  That's all I got.

Last week:  Clemson -12 @ Texas A&M (incorrect, a near-upset being the worst kind of incorrect)

Lock:  1-1

Season 16-15

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

I hate taking this much chalk.

Clemson -12 @ Texas A&M

Jimbo and his complicated passing game two games in seems like a dicey proposition against Clemson's defense.  I also really like Stanford over USC, but I feel like I lock that game every year.

Last week:  Ohio State -38.5 v. Oregon State (correct)

Lock:  1-0

Season 8-8 (would have been 9-8 had I remembered to pick the Penn State game)