2019 Week 12 Ratings

I find Clemson to be interesting.  They are tearing apart a weak schedule as they should, but the nice thing about the Playoff structure is that we actually get to see what that means against the elite tier of the season.  I'd like to see the Committee rank them 4th in the final poll with their schedule cited as the key factor.  Not only do I not expect to see that happen, but I'm also expecting wacky things like A&M and the ACC Coastal champion ranked in the 20-25 range to help justify the Clemson placement.

Thinking about it this morning, I think my prediction for the playoff field is:  Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, LSU.  LSU has suddenly become unable to stop the run which presents a problem against Georgia as ball control will mitigate whatever issues Georgia has passing/keeping up with LSU.  I sorta think Alabama loses the Iron Bowl so they'd be out.  I don't think Oregon gets through their next three games without a further blemish (Herm Edwards is lurking this weekend) and my hunch is LSU wouldn't be dropped out of the top 4 in favor of 1-loss Oklahoma or especially 1-loss Utah, although the latter is an excellent team.

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

I was due a good week last week.

Cincinnati -14 @ South Florida

What little I've seen of South Florida this year, their offense looks like it is stuck in the mud.  And Cincinnati has a top-25 defense.

Last week:  Texas -7 v. Kansas State (correct)

Season 4-6-1 (-$250)

Overall: 94-96-4 (-$610)

If I didn't have a chance to finish above .500 this year, I'd lock up Ohio State -53.  For perspective, earlier this year Alabama v. New Mexico State was -55.5.

2019 Week 11 Ratings

As tedious as ESPN's desire to fit things into the "Who's your top 4" prism with increasingly far-fetched hypotheticals, I much rather prefer that to trying to pick two of LSU, Ohio State and Clemson with ephemeral arguments that can neither be won nor lost.

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

Texas -7 v. Kansas State

Gonna keep taking these dogs...or 'cats in this case.  7 points is way too much to give with the Texas defense in the shape it's in.

Last week:  Utah -3.5 @ Washington (incorrect)

Season 3-6-1 (-$360)

Overall: 89-91-4 (-$1810)

2019 Week 10 Ratings

I think we will have more to discuss next week.  I do like a system that dings a team that plays FCS opposition, especially late in the year (Clemson) more than a team that narrowly lost to a quality opponent on the road (SMU).

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

Same as last week:  get the big upset and the lock and underwhelm overall.  This almost went up last night but warts about Baylor (penalties) and App State (weather) wisely led me away from locking them.

Utah -3.5 @ Washington

None of the trends I've looked at this season point me in this direction.  Just history:  Utah is 1-12 all time vs. Washington.  Utah also doesn't feel like an eventual 11-1 team even considering their pedestrian schedule.

Last week:  Minnesota -16.5 v. Maryland (correct)

Season 3-5-1 (-$250)

Overall: 78-83-3 (-$1330)

2019 Week 9 Ratings

I grant that it is a top heavy season with a lot of backloaded schedules, but some of those schedule strength numbers at the top of the table are abysmal.  Alabama's in particular is alarming, and they haven't even had their SoCon Challenge game yet!

No one can hold a candle to UAB however:  of their 7 opponents so far, 5 lack a FBS win.

I think SMU/Cincinnati/Memphis will be the G5 king this year.  The former two both still have to go to Memphis, but wouldn't play each other until the AAC Conference Game.

PRI+ might have some value as a gambling aid in finding teams that are over/undervalued.  Fading teams like MSU and Georgia might be good plays.