For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 5

It's a crappy slate of games, and a crappy slate of lines.  I will go with:

Nebraska -11 v. Wisconsin.

I don't trust Nebraska a whole lot, but I trust them to put up enough points to cover against a pedestrian Wisconsin team.

Last week:  Florida State -14 v. Clemson (incorrect)

Dr. Saturday sums up my thoughts on last week nicely:

"So, here's what happened for those who had moved on to better things on a Saturday night: Florida State, which racked up 667 yards, led 49-31 late. Clemson, still trying hard, had a fourth-and-goal with less than 3 minutes left. Tajh Boyd's throwback pass went through a Florida State defender's hands, to Brandon Ford for the Clemson touchdown. For the uninitiated, that's known as a backdoor cover, also termed "a kick in the shorts."

The lesson as always, if Clemson is involved, stay away.

Season:  2-2

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 4

We attempt to continue the momentum by playing a most dangerous game:

Florida State -14 v. Clemson



This is not a great weekend for betting, but when there are two top-10 teams facing off, and one team is a big favorite other the other, the favorite is a pretty safe bet normally.  The ACC, and Clemson is particular, is not normal, and who knows how much of that spread is FLORIDA STATE IS BACK, BABY, so I may look pretty dumb Saturday night.  Still, going to go with this one.

Last week:  Louisville -3 v. North Carolina (correct, barely).

Season:  2-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 3

Louisville -3 v. North Carolina

Similar to last week.  3 points seems rather narrow for Louisville, at home, against a team with a questionable defense.

Last week:  Cincinnati -4.5 v. Buffalo (correct).

Season: 1-1

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week - Week 2

Early this week because I'm picking the Thursday night game:

Cincinnati -4.5 v. Pittsburgh

Last week:  Georgia -37.5 v. Buffalo (incorrect).

I knew that was a lot of points.

Season: 0-1

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week - Week 1

Looking for my third consecutive 10-win season.  Let's start with:

Georgia -38 v. Buffalo.  I don't like laying all those points early in the season, but Buffalo is pretty awful.

Last season:  10-4

2012 Predictions: Projected Ratings & Bowl Projections

The always interesting Pittsfield Ratings Index ratings and schedule strength rankings are now available! Not much to say, since every prediction needs to be accurate for these ratings to be correct. My bowl predictions, best I can decipher, follow. Despite the postseason bans for 5 teams, I still had 72 teams to fill up all those games, which will arrive sooner than you think.

FOOTBALL TOMORROW!

2012 Predictions: SEC

LSU over Georgia, just like last year. LSU defeats Alabama in Red Stick on November 3rd, but loses the regular season finale at Arkansas in the sort of wacky rivalry game John L. Smith usually wins. I think they also make the BCS title game. Can a repeat of last year happen? Absolutely, since I don't think Alabama falls too far in the polls after the loss to LSU. Great system.

As for the rest:

Arkansas - In picking this team this year, my mantra was "when in doubt, bet against John L.".

Auburn - Chizik decides to blow up the system on both sides of the ball after Malzahn left. While the defense will be an improvement (Who would hire Ted Roof anymore? Oh right, Penn State), trying to install a pro-style offense with players recruited to the spread and no every down back apparent is a real tall order for a team in the SEC West.

Florida - Speaking of no offense. It's a good thing they play in the SEC East (boy, I could write that a lot) and even then, a winning record is far from assured.

Georgia - This team, even with no proven RB, could go undefeated, but I'm sure they'll find a way to cock up the Florida game.

Kentucky - An offense that puts Florida's in perspective. When you begin to have a talent deficit in relation to the rest of the conference, your slide is fast. See also:

Mississippi - This program has fallen a long way since the baffling ranking of #4 in the AP poll back in 2009. Hugh Freeze is a good hire, but getting this team back to bowl eligibility anytime soon looks like a tall order.

Mississippi State - Whoa, 10-2 Mississippi State?! That was my reaction too, but they have a cupcake nonconference schedule, have their two non Alabama/LSU road games in conference at the two worst teams in the conference, and have every other conference game with teams around their level in Starkville. It's a shaky 10, but it's still 10.

Missouri - I think this team is pretty well-equipped for the SEC. Good offensive skill and a quality defense. Plus, Columbia in November isn't exactly a tropical paradise in what's already an out-of-the-way trip for the rest of the SEC.

South Carolina - That defense is nasty, and the division title comes down to that defense against Georgia in what's usually an entertaining game. If Spurrier could find where ever he misplaced his balls, this team would be unstoppable.

Tennessee - I wonder who Tennessee is going to hire this off-season. Hopefully it quells the rage of Derek Dooley's mother. 7 wins isn't going to cut it.

Texas A&M - A tale of two halves for the Aggies. The first half of the season is most doable. The back half is pretty ugly with three straight division road games. No bye week either, as the LaTech opener was postponed to October on the day of this writing.

Vanderbilt - I love what James Franklin has brought to Vanderbilt. That's right, 8 wins. Could be 9, they get Florida at home. Next post has projected ratings if EVERYTHING goes according to my predictions, plus my best crack at what the bowls will look like. We'll all have a good laugh in December.