2013 PRI+ Ratings

For the last 6-8 weeks, I have been working on adding a performance metric to my football ratings, and I am very pleased to reveal them to you now:



I was not interested in adding a simple margin of victory component, instead creating a calculation that considered:

-who did you play
-what was the expected margin of victory (h/t here:  http://www.footballstudyhall.com/picks)
-what was the actual margin of victory

Some selected examples:

Florida State v. Clemson:  Both teams had double digit wins and could be considered upper echelon teams, or "equals".  FSU was expected to win by 4, ended up winning by 37.  This results in a big bonus for Florida State, and a big penalty for Clemson.

Florida State v. Syracuse:  An elite team v. a mediocre team.  FSU expected to win by 43, won by 56.  Small bonus for FSU, small penalty for Syracuse.

Central Florida v. Temple:  Elite v. Poor.  UCF expected to win by 30, won only by 3.  Big penalty for Central Florida, big bonus for Temple.

I'll be keeping track of the old and new methods next season (PRI/PRI+) although the latter will most likely not be calculated until later in the season.

2013 Predictions Revisited

Better late than never.  I've actually had these ready to go for a while, but shifted my attention towards working on the margin of victory component, which is taking a lot of time.  I hope to have a finished product ready for your reading no later than May.

Much to my surprise, considering how badly I underestimated about half of the eventual BCS participants, I actually did better than last year, missing on average of 1.96 games per team.

2013 Gambling Results

The most perplexing aspect of the 2013 season was my dismal Lock Of The Week performance, despite my weekly picks being quite clairvoyant most weeks.  I present them to you now:



I picked the top 25 teams/Michigan/Michigan State games against FBS opposition against the spread.

155-134-9 on the year.  Red = locks of the week.  Some weeks I picked against the over/under line, which is not listed here.

2013 Final PRI Ratings

For your reading pleasure.  Added to the year end ratings is a comparison with Sagarin's strength of schedule to my own as well as a non-conference strength of schedule rating.  Also, given the conference championships mainly provided us with fresh matchups between teams with stellar records, I have provided you a comparison had those games been included in the calculations.  As I've seen in the past, there is very little change.



My ratings go back to 2003.  The worst-ranking BCS teams in their respective year:

2003 Kansas State 77th
2004 Pittsburgh 51st
2005 Florida State 70th
2006 Wake Forest 21st
2007 Hawaii 49th
2008 Virginia Tech 53rd
2009 Iowa 17th
2010 Connecticut 71st
2011 Wisconsin 53rd
2012 Florida State 55th
2013 Clemson 42nd

Coming soon:

-A year-by-year comparison
-A look at my gambling prowess this season
-A sure-to-be-hilarious look at my preseason predictions
-2013 as calculated differently.  I've been working on tweaks to the formula in my head.

2014 Bowl-O-Rama, Finale

Florida State -10 v. Auburn

I mean, if I'm going to pick FSU -57 v. Idaho, might as well.

Bowl Season:  20-14.  An incredible record since that 0-4 clunker to start the season.

I thank you for your patronage.  Plenty more coming this month.

2014 Bowl-O-Rama, Days 10-13

Sugar: Alabama -17 v. Oklahoma
Orange:  Ohio State -3 v. Clemson
Cotton:  Oklahoma State -1.5 v. Missouri
BBVA Compass:  Vanderbilt -3 v. Houston
GoDaddy:  Ball State -9 v. Arkansas State

Bowl Season:  17-12

If You'll Indulge Me

Who's bad now, boss?