2016-17 Bowl Picks

This will be updated as the bowl season progresses.

2016 Final Ratings

You'll have to do some scrolling.

So to review:

PRI and PRI+ you're familiar with

Recency weights recent results more

OOC measures a team's non-conference schedule

FCS, on the fourth tab, is what a team's score looks like removing a team's worst opponent.

The set of numbers that struck me the most were the full season SOS numbers, which were about 10% worse than the numbers last season, which makes sense for such a middling season that lacked the chaos we've come to expect from the sport.

Again, I am pleased with the four playoff teams.  Auburn sticks out like a sore thumb for the NY6, but the Sugar's hand is forced for that selection.  What's interesting is five years ago the outcry over a team with Western Michigan's resume not being in the BCS would have been deafening;  you didn't hear a peep about that this year.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

For the final time in a lucrative year:

Navy -2.5 v. Temple

Navy is at home, playing at a very high level and has a chance at it's first conference title.  Temple has an excellent defense as has become their style, but I think Navy is a FG better at home.

Last week:  USC -17 v. Notre Dame (correct)

Season:  9-3-1

Season overall:  119-116-4(-$970, assuming $110 bets)

There will be bowl bets as well.  I'll also pick Army/Navy if Navy remains ranked.

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 13

I'm not going to be the one to argue against Ohio State's resume.

I'm very interested to see what happens to the teams currently sitting 2-10 after the "extra data point" is applied after the conference title games are decided.

Final ratings after Army-Navy.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

USC -17 v. Notre Dame

Another bet against a team that probably would rather be doing anything else than playing USC on Saturday.  Notre Dame has cratered on offense and it's hard to see much scoring from them.  We could be in for another memorable crushing.

Last week:  Nebraska -13 v. Maryland (correct)

Season:  8-3-1

Season overall:  107-112-3(-$1730, assuming $110 bets)

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 12

The SEC/FCS Challenge takes it's usual pre-Thanksgiving weekend toll.

The current top 5 all won road games this week.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Nebraska -13 v. Maryland

This line seems low to me which perhaps should be worrying.  Maryland just appears to have down tools for the season, particularly a defense which has totally collapsed.  Nebraska to win big on Senior Day in Lincoln.

Or perhaps they should be worried because the three teams I considered locking up last week lost, as did Louisville this week.

Last week:  Washington -8.5 v. USC (incorrect)

Season:  7-3-1

Season overall:  94-105-3(-$2260, assuming $110 bets)