2017 Predictions

I had planned to do a lot more in the offseason, but when your computer gets wrecked that sort of puts the kibosh on things.

Thanksgiving weekend will be notable as undefeateds Alabama and Ohio State are upset, and in the latter's case, knocked out of a chance at the playoff.  My Playoff 4:

Alabama

USC

Michigan

Florida State

I chose Florida State as a 2-loss conference champion, as losses to Alabama and at Clemson (depending on manner of course) will probably only count as one loss in the committee's eyes and I think there will be reticence on the committee's part to include Ohio State without a conference title after last year, although they should view each year as a clean slate.  Oklahoma was also considered, but Florida State's marginally stronger schedule gave them an edge.  Wisconsin, losing twice to Michigan and no one else, was not considered.  Undefeated South Florida, with their Charmin-soft schedule, also not considered.

Alabama over USC in the final.  I'm not even sold on USC, but they always start with a talent advantage and this year is looking to be a mediocre season, particularly early on as many teams are either breaking in new quarterbacks, rebuilding their secondary or both.

I have no idea how 7-5 Michigan State rates so high.

2016 Predictions Revisited

Yikes.  Missing a little over 2 games per team is one of my two worst efforts since I started doing this.  2012 was worse, and that was also a pretty poor season checking wiki.  It certainly was for Lennay Kekua.

MSU, Oregon, Notre Dame, the two Mississippis, Wyoming, K-State, TCU and UCLA were the big misses, and I hated the latter three predictions after I had made them.  Wyoming was just a year ahead of schedule I think.

2016-17 Bowl Picks

This will be updated as the bowl season progresses.

2016 Final Ratings

You'll have to do some scrolling.

So to review:

PRI and PRI+ you're familiar with

Recency weights recent results more

OOC measures a team's non-conference schedule

FCS, on the fourth tab, is what a team's score looks like removing a team's worst opponent.

The set of numbers that struck me the most were the full season SOS numbers, which were about 10% worse than the numbers last season, which makes sense for such a middling season that lacked the chaos we've come to expect from the sport.

Again, I am pleased with the four playoff teams.  Auburn sticks out like a sore thumb for the NY6, but the Sugar's hand is forced for that selection.  What's interesting is five years ago the outcry over a team with Western Michigan's resume not being in the BCS would have been deafening;  you didn't hear a peep about that this year.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

For the final time in a lucrative year:

Navy -2.5 v. Temple

Navy is at home, playing at a very high level and has a chance at it's first conference title.  Temple has an excellent defense as has become their style, but I think Navy is a FG better at home.

Last week:  USC -17 v. Notre Dame (correct)

Season:  9-3-1

Season overall:  119-116-4(-$970, assuming $110 bets)

There will be bowl bets as well.  I'll also pick Army/Navy if Navy remains ranked.

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 13

I'm not going to be the one to argue against Ohio State's resume.

I'm very interested to see what happens to the teams currently sitting 2-10 after the "extra data point" is applied after the conference title games are decided.

Final ratings after Army-Navy.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

USC -17 v. Notre Dame

Another bet against a team that probably would rather be doing anything else than playing USC on Saturday.  Notre Dame has cratered on offense and it's hard to see much scoring from them.  We could be in for another memorable crushing.

Last week:  Nebraska -13 v. Maryland (correct)

Season:  8-3-1

Season overall:  107-112-3(-$1730, assuming $110 bets)