2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 1

As we've alluded to, this is not the most impressive opening salvo of a college football season one will experience.  By my count:

41 FBS v. FCS games

18 games with spreads larger 18.5 points

This has made choosing a lock difficult.

With that said:

Ohio State -27.5 v. Florida Atlantic

I went back and looked, and Ohio State was my choice Week 1 last season as well.  Florida Atlantic is a team in flux (shocker under Kiffin) and I think a new look Buckeye team will be eager to get off to a flyer.

Last season:  8-5-1

2019 Predictions

Your Playoff 4 are Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and I think Oklahoma would be given the edge over Washington and undefeated-going-into-the-Michigan game Ohio State.  As long as the field is set at 4, it will be very difficult for a team that only has one loss, but lost late, and didn't even win their division to make the playoff as Alabama did a couple years ago.

I really want the Big Ten West to shake out as I have projected with a bunch of teams in a wacky 5- or 6-way tie.  Similarly, I am looking forward to a fun Big XII season.

Auburn joins USC and Florida State as bluebloods I'm bearish on, and 7 wins might be generous for the Tigers. Media consensus seems very high for USC.  Since 1987, they rank 14th in winning % and that's with the Carroll years skewing the average.

2018 Predictions Revisited

After being over two results off per team the last couple of seasons, I got under that this year.

Had Georgia held on in the SEC Championship Game, I'd have had the playoff nailed on.  Poor ESPN would have only had less than 24 hours for their Oklahoma/Alabama/Ohio State debate.  Would have really ramped up the 8-team playoff discussions, I imagine.

I had both Florida State and USC as 7-5 teams, and those predictions were certainly some of, if not the most bearish for those two squads amongst the punditry.  Turns out I was too optimistic.

2018-19 Bowl Picks

Updated as the bowling goes on.

2018 Final PRI Ratings

The "EFF" calculation factors in a team's offensive and defensive efficiencies via ESPN FPI and lessens the schedule strength component somewhat.

This definitely was a year where more than just the raw calculations were required.  At first I thought the struggle was with the perception that there was a glut of mediocrity this year.  However, comparing to 2017, we had about as many 9 win teams and teams with 5-7 wins then as we do today, so I think it was more instead of having 45-50 teams evenly spread across college football, you still had the same # of teams but had 18-20 of those teams concentrated in the ACC Coastal, Big Ten West and Pac-12 South.

I'm concerned about how the inevitable 8-team playoff is going to shake itself out.  Given that the seemingly obvious Power 5 champions/Best Group of 5/2 at-large is imperfect and has obvious pratfalls (aka The Rose Bowl Question), will the committee keep largely the same system in place and just flesh out the field with whatever SEC teams look the best?  9-3 Florida, with two wins over FCS teams, getting in to the NY6 over 10-2 Washington State (who were robbed against USC) is a bit of a joke.  And is Central Florida really the best G5 representative?  The American was dreadful this year, and I think Fresno State would give them a competitve game if not win outright.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

For the final time this year.  With a winning season as far as the lock is concerned, I'd like to not go 0-7 this week.

Georgia +13 v. Alabama

13 is a lot of points between two teams that are pretty evenly matched, and Georgia will be in front of a partial crowd.

Last week: LSU +3.5 @ Texas A&M (correct)

Lock:  7-5-1
Season 117-113-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 13

So of the contenders for the 4-seed, it is all very narrow between Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama, the latter's contendership would be due to losing on Saturday of course.  The debate between Oklahoma and Ohio State doesn't really interest me;  I don't have strong feelings on the inclusion of one team over another.

Now...Alabama losing close essentially on the road and the other two winning conference championships comfortably?  That would put the cat amongst the pigeons, and I would try to figure out some sort of update before Sunday noon.  Final ratings will be out after Army-Navy.