2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

I hate taking this much chalk.

Clemson -12 @ Texas A&M

Jimbo and his complicated passing game two games in seems like a dicey proposition against Clemson's defense.  I also really like Stanford over USC, but I feel like I lock that game every year.

Last week:  Ohio State -38.5 v. Oregon State (correct)

Lock:  1-0

Season 8-8 (would have been 9-8 had I remembered to pick the Penn State game)

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 1

Last year I picked overall at a 57% success rate, but just .500 for the locks.  The former was my best such effort.  Hopefully those among us who live in states with more progressive attitudes towards gambling can use these to make some money.

Ohio State -38.5 v. Oregon State

I'd normally bet the other way on such a big number, but Ohio State may be one of the three best teams in the country, while Oregon State is one of the three worst power 5 programs with a brand new, first time head coach (and Ohio State will play 2 such programs this year).  Something like 52-6 is definitely on the table.

2018 Predictions

Back at it again, although with the NCAA doing away with RPI I too may be trying to figure out how to include an efficiency component to things, probably at the end of the season.




Glancing at the "Playoff Contenders" tab, I would select:  Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma and Georgia.

I believe the Committee would select:  Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame.

2017 Predictions Revisited

Virtually the same as last year, missing by 2.09 games v. 2.07.  Usually it's the group of 5 that skews the averages, but I really did well predicting the MAC West and Mountain West.

I did set a new record for most games wrong on a team in Fresno State.  Doubt Jeff Tedford early in his tenure at your own peril, I guess.

2017 Bowl Picks

These picks will be updated constantly throughout the schedule.

Enjoy.

2017 Final Ratings

In these, you will find:

-A ratings that gives a recency bias

-Out of conference schedule strength

-The delta from the first batch of ratings to the last.  Kansas State improved by 71 places!  Auburn and Florida Atlantic made 61 and 60 spot leaps respectively.

-And an average of all three metrics, unedited, performance and recency.

This was not a good year for the Committee's end product.

I get it, don't get blown out by Iowa (whom I have rated 10th).  But to ignore such tangible assets such as "won the conference that scored the best" and "had the hardest out of conference schedule" in favor of something esoteric like "reputation" or hypothetical on-field results just doesn't sit well with me at all.

And Washington in the NY6 just seems like making up the numbers, although that would probably be the case regardless of their choice.

It doesn't terribly mar what was an excellent season, but the decision-making is a little bit of a sour taste in the mouth.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

A very strange year.  Best I can do with locks is .500, but I'm currently +35 overall.

Boise State -9.5 v. Fresno State

The bevy of rematches this week are making for some difficult choices.  It's hard to trust a team to lay over a touchdown to a team they just lost to by 11 last week, albeit on the road.

Last week:  Virginia Tech -7 @ Virginia (incorrect)

Season:  6-7