Bowl-o-rama, Day 10

I need to start digging up.

Texas:  Texas A&M -9.5 v. Northwestern

Sun:  Georgia Tech -2 v. Utah

Fight Hunger:  Illinois -2.5 v. UCLA

Liberty:  Cincinnati -1.5 v. Vanderbilt

Chick-Fil-A:  Auburn -3 v.  Virginia

Bowl Season:  7-12

Bowl-o-rama, Day 9

Armed Forces Bowl:  BYU 1.5 v. Tulsa

Pinstripe:  Rutgers -1 v. Iowa State

Music City:  Mississippi State -7 v. Wake Forest

Insight:  Oklahoma -14 v. Iowa

Bowl Season:  6-9

Has there been a quadrupleheader of college football action that has been as least-interesting as this one?

Bowl-o-rama, Days 7 & 8

I don't like working during the bowl season.  Or my picks thus far.

Military Bowl: Toledo -3 v. Air Force

Holiday Bowl:  Texas -3.5 v. California

Champ Sports Bowl:  Florida State -3.5 v. Notre Dame

Alamo:  Baylor - 9 v. Washington

If this were real money, I wouldn't touch that Champ Sports Bowl.

Bowl-o-rama, Days 6 & 7

Combining both today and tomorrow as I am traveling tomorrow.  Hopefully neither pick misses by half a point, although I am not very confident on tonight's clash in Shreveport.

Independence:  Missouri -5.5 v. North Carolina

Little Caeser's Pizza:  Purdue -3 v. Western Michigan

Belk:  North Carolina State -1 v. Louisville

Bowl Season:  3-5

Bowl-o-rama, Day 5

Happy Holidays!

Southern Miss -7.5 v. Nevada

Bowl season:  3-4

Bowl-o-rama, Day 4

Let's try this again.  I trust Boise.

Boise State -14 v. Arizona State

Bowl Season:  2-4

I'm on Sidebets at hwoodng.  With the way I'm picking, you can really clean up.

Bowl-o-rama, Day 3

I've lost three straight games.  Time for that to end.

TCU -10 v. Louisiana Tech

Bowl season:  2-3

Bowl-o-rama, Day 2

Florida International -4 v. Marshall

Bowl Record:  2-2

Bowl-o-rama, Day 1

After a little inactivity, the blog returns with picks each day of bowl games, against the spread of course.  From the Gildan New Mexico Bowl to the BCS title game.  The benefit of this glut of games is that I learn about these brave corporate sponsors and what it is they do.  For example, Gildan is some sort of underwear manufacturer.


New Mexico Bowl
Temple -7 v. Wyoming

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Utah State -2 v. Ohio

New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State -4 v. Louisiana-Lafayette

Wyoming finished a surprising 3rd in the Mountain West this year, despite having the nation's 115th-ranked defense.  Temple has Dr. Bernard Pierce at running back, and should cap a fine season with Temple's first bowl win since 1979.  I think all the close losses to better teams pay off for Utah State this post season.  ULLAF is essentially playing a home game, and Mark Hudspeth is a name to keep an eye on as coach, taking a team picked to finish last in the Sun Belt to their first bowl game since joining 1-A, but San Diego State is far superior athletically.

Bonus pick:

Wayne State, Detroit's only college football team, has made a Cinderella run through the Division 2 playoffs and has made the final v. Pittsburg State.  From what I read, midnight is about to strike.

Pittsburg State -10.5 v. Wayne State

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week - Week 14

Last one of these for the season, and while staring consecutive 10-win seasons in the face, I'm about to do something rash that I never do:  bet on Michigan State.

Wisconsin -9.5 v. Michigan State

I'm a Spartan fan, so let's get that out of the way.

Michigan State is 2-0 against Wisconsin the last two seasons.  To say that on a neutral field, with two teams as evenly matched as these two, and Michigan State's superior defense, that Wisconsin, a team that beat Nebraska and no one else on the way to a 10-win season, is a two-score favorite is absurd.  This is a media-driven line, given that the narrative is Wisconsin is on an inevitable march to the Rose Bowl and just has to get by some team in the title game.  Yeah, some team that also won 10 games.  And how many Big Games has Bielema won, anyways?  Bet the other way.

Last Week:  Stanford -7.5 v. Notre Dame (correct)
Season:  9-4

PRI Ratings, Week 13

Biggest gain from Week 11: New Mexico State 98 -> 71 27 places
Biggest loss from Week 11: UTEP 61 -> 82 21 places

Things seem to be settling in with the consensus. Except for Tulsa.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 13

Briefly, staying in the Pac-12 again this week:

Stanford -7.5 v. Notre Dame

Last week: Oregon -14.5 v. USC (incorrect)
Season: 8-4

PRI Ratings, Week 12

Biggest gain from Week 11: Iowa State 94 -> 48 46 places
Biggest loss from Week 11: San Jose State 36 -> 75 39 places

Don't play 1-AA teams is the lesson for Florida, especially when your resume isn't great to begin with.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Only a couple more weeks to go, amazingly.

Oregon -14.5 v. USC

I'll take only needing 2 touchdowns in Autzen against a USC team that runs hot-and-cold.

Last week:  Arkansas -14 v. Tennessee (correct)
Season:  8-3

PRI Ratings, Week 11

Biggest gain from Week 10: San Diego State 69 -> 33 36 places
Biggest loss from Week 10: San Jose State 24 -> 57 33 places

San Jose State falls out of the top 25, to the delight of everyone.

That's a fine top 10, insofar as a good number of those teams were considered national title contenders at some point during the season. The wacky results from earlier this year have given way to matching the broader consensus out there. Yes, there is the case of 3-loss (and none of them close) Tulsa, but I choose to give them credit for difficult scheduling. How many teams in 1-A would have fared better against a non-conference schedule of at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and at Boise? Can you name 10? Tulsa might be a very good team, but people view the three losses with no context whatsoever.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Stone Cold Lock Of The Week, Week 11

I liked a lot of the lines better this week.  To wit:

Arkansas -14 v. Tennessee

Having a hard time seeing how Tennessee keeps it within 2 TD's in Fayetteville.  They simply cannot score.

Last week:  Alabama -4.5 v. LSU (loss)
Season:  7-3

PRI Ratings - Week 10

Biggest gain from Week 9: Texas Christian 66 -> 33 33 places
Biggest loss from Week 9: Miami (OH) 78 -> 105 27 places

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 10

Since everyone has an opinion, and I don't like the Top 25 odds at all this week:

 

Alabama -4.5 v. LSU

 

Trent Richardson and the Alabama secondary at home makes the difference here.

 

Last week: Oklahoma State -14 @ Baylor (correct)
Season: 7-2

PRI Ratings - Week 9

Biggest gain from Week 8: Northwestern 120 -> 76 44 places
Biggest loss from Week 8: Central Florida 82 -> 108 26 places

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 9

Oklahoma State -14 v. Baylor

One of the best offenses in the country goes up against a team that cannot stop anyone, in Stillwater no less, and is only favored by 2 touchdowns? Maybe that makes sense playing RG3 in Waco, but this should be a comfortable victory for Oklahoma State.

Last week: Kansas State -10 @ Kansas (correct)
Season: 6-2

PRI Ratings - Week 8

Does the controversy continue? Let's find out:



Tulsa benefits from a ridiculous non-conference schedule and a couple road wins. A&M also has had a difficult road so far. Georgia has three road wins, SEC road wins at that. Sure, two of them were Mississippi and Vandy, but the latter actually seems competent this year. Lots of legitimate top-10 teams this week.

Biggest gain from Week 7: Cincinnati 110 ->72 38 places
Biggest loss from Week 7: Kentucky/BYU, 74 -> 101 and 21 -> 48 respectively, 27 places

The lesson there? Don't play 1-AA teams.

Strength of Schedule, being presented differently because Google Docs is being grumpy:

SOS Team Score
1 Kansas 0.6291
Arizona 0.5796
Nevada 0.5276
San Jose State 0.5148
Tennessee 0.5143
Marshall 0.5063
Texas A&M 0.5041
Kent State 0.5026
Auburn 0.4973
Oregon 0.4929
Tulsa 0.4898
USC 0.4857
Mississippi State 0.4719
New Mexico 0.4612
North Texas 0.4594
Mississippi 0.4587
Texas 0.4577
Toledo 0.4509
Miami (FL) 0.4464
20 East Carolina 0.4464
Akron 0.4444
Boston College 0.4434
Maryland 0.4429
Florida Atlantic 0.442
Boise State 0.4378
Minnesota 0.4367
Navy 0.4327
Missouri 0.4311
Oklahoma 0.4311
Vanderbilt 0.4265
Air Force 0.4238
Baylor 0.4238
SMU 0.4168
Notre Dame 0.4163
Georgia 0.4163
Syracuse 0.4148
Kentucky 0.4102
North Carolina 0.4089
UTEP 0.4087
40 Rice 0.4082
Arizona State 0.4026
Florida State 0.4015
Texas Tech 0.4
Washington State 0.3964
Troy 0.396
UAB 0.3923
Oklahoma State 0.3883
Indiana 0.3835
South Carolina 0.3821
Virginia Tech 0.3813
California 0.3811
Arkansas State 0.3796
South Florida 0.3781
Duke 0.376
Ohio State 0.3745
Michigan 0.3738
Idaho 0.3699
Fresno State 0.3679
Louisiana Tech 0.3673
60 Florida International 0.3592
Washington 0.3592
UCLA 0.3577
Louisville 0.3566
Florida 0.351
Memphis 0.3493
LSU 0.3487
Utah State 0.3476
Arkansas 0.3474
West Virginia 0.3434
Purdue 0.341
Northwestern 0.3383
Army 0.3371
Wake Forest 0.3357
Colorado 0.3327
Iowa State 0.3327
Pittsburgh 0.3291
Penn State 0.3281
Houston 0.3276
Western Michigan 0.3268
80 ULM 0.326
Alabama 0.3254
Buffalo 0.3254
Oregon State 0.3245
North Carolina State 0.3214
ULLAF 0.3174
Ball State 0.317
Stanford 0.3148
Colorado State 0.3128
Bowling Green 0.3126
BYU 0.3107
San Diego State 0.3095
Michigan State 0.3087
Central Michigan 0.3049
UNLV 0.2984
Middle Tennessee State 0.2964
Tulane 0.2933
Central Florida 0.2918
Southern Mississippi 0.2913
Temple 0.2888
100 Rutgers 0.2878
Nebraska 0.2874
Miami (OH) 0.2872
Clemson 0.2853
Eastern Michigan 0.2848
Wisconsin 0.2837
Illinois 0.2835
Virginia 0.274
Hawaii 0.2699
Texas Christian 0.2626
New Mexico State 0.2592
Connecticut 0.2531
Western Kentucky 0.2522
Kansas State 0.2429
Georgia Tech 0.2417
Utah 0.2304
Wyoming 0.2304
Iowa 0.2296
Ohio 0.2272
Cincinnati 0.2
120 Northern Illinois 0.1982

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 8

Kansas State -10 @ Kansas

I understand that this is a heated rivalry game, even if it is two bald men fighting over a comb most times, but Kansas State only having to get 10 more than Kansas and their defense seems like free money to me.

Last week: Florida -2 @ Auburn (correct)
Season: 5-2

PRI Ratings - Week 7

I guess the biggest quibble would be the placement of Wisconsin, but in a system that rewards road wins and difficult schedules, they fall short of acclaim. Full credit for destroying the bilge they've mostly played thus far, but a win at Michigan State next Saturday will move them up the standings fairly quickly.

Boise State with their 4 road wins stay at #1.

Biggest gain from Week 6: Ohio State 74 -> 15, 59 places
Biggest loss from Week 6: Louisville 71 -> 109, 38 places

Schedule strength:

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 7

Quickly because I just realized I forgot to put this up:

Florida - 2 @ Auburn

Last Week:  Boise State -21 @ Fresno State
Season:  4-2

PRI Ratings - Week 6

Finally, the 2011 debut:




Things tend to even out. Tulsa at 2-3 is shocking, but look at things from this perspective:

It's a formula based on the RPI with 50% of a team's score based on schedule strength. As you can see below, Tulsa is #1, which makes sense as they've played Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise, who are a combined 15-0. As Tulsa goes into their conference schedule, that part of their score is going to drop. Of Tulsa's 5 games, 1 of them is a road win, which are rewarded more than home wins are. That ratio will drop as the season goes on. San Jose State is a similar situation.

Boise's willingness to go on the road thrice, which is something more akin to what a MAC program would do, against a decent (29th) schedule has them as #1. They're also helped by not playing 1-AA opposition, which I treat as a vacated win, which is why LSU ranks so low despite a very impressive resume to this point. Having such a thing is damaging this early in the season. Key word being early.

To sum, a team is probably rated right now where it is due to three factors:

1. Did they play on the road multiple times
2. What is the strength of their current schedule
3. Did they play any 1-AA teams.

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 6

It's that time of the week again.  Going for 3 in a row.

Boise State -21 v. Fresno State

Last week, Fresno lost at home to a cratering Ole Miss team who didn't heed the SEC directive of not taking games outside of the Southeast.  I guess that proves the SEC superiority or something.  Boise is a much better team than Ole Miss.  Last year's meeting in Boise was 51-0 in favor of the home team, an incredible performance if I recall correctly.  A repeat is unlikely as Boise is still getting their new pieces on offense in place, but a comfortable win is reasonable to expect.

Last week:  West Virginia -21.5 v. Bowling Green (correct)
Season:  3-2

Rankings next week.

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 5

Big win last week.  Let's keep it up.

West Virginia - 19.5 v. Bowling Green

West Virginia gets things back on track at home vs. a MAC opponent.

Last week:  Arizona State -2.5 v. USC (correct)
Season:  2-2

A week from Tuesday, the first rankings will appear.

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 4

Edit:  I read the odds wrong last night.

Not doing well.  I've selected underdogs the last two weeks, and they were both losses.  Let's learn from that lesson.

Arizona State -2.5 v. USC

USC is in a bit of disarray.  Barkley-to-Woods is good, but they can't run the ball at all, and I don't think they care to play for Kiffin all that hard.  ASU is tough at home and tough on defense, so I like them to cover Saturday night, even if they are part of the Don't Bet Pantheon with Michigan State, Clemson and Ron Zook.


Last week:  Oklahoma -3 @ Florida State (incorrect)
Season:  1-2

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 3

Last week was a losing effort as I selected Florida Atlantic to cover against Michigan State.  I had heard that FAU was lacking an offense, but I think all of us were surprised to see MSU hold them to 44 total yards and 1 first down.

This week, I'm going with another Florida team for my pick:

Oklahoma -3 @ Florida State

Oklahoma non-conference road trips usually don't go well, at least against the spread.

Last week:  Michigan State -29 v. Florida Atlantic  (incorrect)

Season:  1-1

Clairvoyance

I'm not a Michigan fan, but my parents are both alums and have season tickets for 25 years. I’ve seen a few games in that time period:

Miami 31, Michigan 30

The Rocket Ishmail Game

Florida State

Desmond’s Catch

Desmond’s Punt Return

The Kevin McDougall Game

Hail Mary

Penn State ’94

Syracuse

The Braylon Game v. MSU

Oregon

And now tonight. I actually postponed a cross-country move because I wanted to see the first night game at Michigan Stadium. I’m glad I did, even if I don’t have a clue what I saw.

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 2

Michigan State -32.5 v. Florida Atlantic

I picked this same game in the same week last year as my lock of the week, FAU +28 I believe it was.  I think MSU will be improved over last week's rather uninspiring performance (believe me, I was there), but asking for a 33 point victory is a bit much, especially if the reserves get PT like we all hope.

Last week:  Mississippi State -29 @ Memphis
Season:  1-0

For Entertainment Purposes Stone Cold Lock Of The Week - Week 1

Mississippi State -29 @ Memphis.



It's a big spread for a road favorite, and Mississippi State wasn't known for it's offensive fireworks last year, but Memphis is a bottom 10 team at the moment.

Last season:  10-4

Projected PRI Ratings

Much like the bowl projections, for these "projections" to be right everything needs to go 100% right for these to be reality.  So they won't be after this weekend I'm sure, but enjoy them anyways.  Week 1 gambling picks will be up before 8PM.

Teetering Above The Carter-Nixon Tunnel Are These Bowl "Projections"

A word about these if I may.  Don't take them seriously.  This is a best guess as to what the BCS is going to look like, using my projected ratings as a loose guide, and what bowls are going to select which team.

Winning teams are on the left in bold.  Records listed are records after the bowl game.