2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

For the final time this year.  With a winning season as far as the lock is concerned, I'd like to not go 0-7 this week.

Georgia +13 v. Alabama

13 is a lot of points between two teams that are pretty evenly matched, and Georgia will be in front of a partial crowd.

Last week: LSU +3.5 @ Texas A&M (correct)

Lock:  7-5-1
Season 117-113-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 13

So of the contenders for the 4-seed, it is all very narrow between Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama, the latter's contendership would be due to losing on Saturday of course.  The debate between Oklahoma and Ohio State doesn't really interest me;  I don't have strong feelings on the inclusion of one team over another.

Now...Alabama losing close essentially on the road and the other two winning conference championships comfortably?  That would put the cat amongst the pigeons, and I would try to figure out some sort of update before Sunday noon.  Final ratings will be out after Army-Navy.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

Thank you for your viewing this season.

LSU +3.5 @ Texas A&M

In a defensive struggle, I'm going to go with the better defense even on the road.

Last week: Utah State -28 v. Colorado State (incorrect)

Lock:  6-5-1
Season 108-103-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 12

PRI+ seems to be a more accurate rating this season, at least this week.

That was a big road win for Wisconsin.

Alabama wasn't punished for their SoCon Challenge game as much as they have been in previous years.

Texas State rises off of the foot of the table..and then fires their coach?

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Not a whole lot appeals this week, both as a gambler and as a viewer.  Surprisingly, next week also doesn't offer a whole lot either.

Utah State -28 v. Colorado State

I've seen Colorado State play a couple times this year, including last week.  Their defense is dreadful.  I'll take the class of the Mountain West at home.

Last week: Syracuse -21 v. Louisville (correct)

Lock:  6-4-1
Season 99-93-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 11

Barring some unforeseen upset, and given next week's slate it would be very much unforeseen, I don't think we're going to see much change to the consolidation of positions of any team one might consider for the top 4.

The exception to that is this surge by Ohio State.  Considered dead and buried after getting housed by Purdue, a 1-loss Big Ten champion Buck-Eye squad will merit some playoff consideration, and these numbers will look upon them very favorably.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

So the lock has gone south as the overall picks have gone north.  I'm looking to an unusual place to arrest this slide:

Syracuse -21 v. Louisville

Syracuse might be looking ahead to Notre Dame next weekend, but Louisville is bloody awful and I don't think a second straight road game, this time in a parking garage in Syracuse, is going to help matters.

Last week: Utah -7 @ Arizona State (incorrect)

Lock:  5-4-1
Season 88-86-3

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 10

Week 10 adds the performance metric.  I've changed how I've done the calculations, the differences are less severe than previous years.  However, the calculations are now way easier so that may be part of the suite of results from the start next season.  I'm working on how to calculate the efficiency metric as well.  I'm getting to be like Sagarin here.

How high does Alabama climb before their inevitable fall after Week 12's SoCon challenge?  Also, with games against Lafayette and Colgate on deck, we will be saying farewell to Army from the top 10, although the latter game is actually one of the more fascinating clashes of a pedestrian week 12 seeing as Colgate has allowed 6 points their last 7 games, and none in their last three.

Alabama/Clemson/Notre Dame/Michigan seems like a safe bet for the playoff four if the latter two win out (I don't think there's much question about the former two).  Michigan v. 1-loss Big 12 is an interesting debate comparing resumes, but ultimately it's going to be a subjective evaluation of who "looks" like a better team.  WVA is really getting hurt so far by that cancelled game at North Carolina State.  A win there would have them up in my top 25 instead of mired in the 40s.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

22 games to choose!  I think that might be some sort of record.  And no obvious locks stand out.  To wit:

Utah -7 @ Arizona State

Going with a Utah team that has trended upwards during October, playing an Arizona State team that is poor on defense.  Two things give me pause:

1. Second straight road game for Utah
2. Utah really puts the "no" in November, historically.

But I think 7 points is good value.

Last week: Purdue +2 @ Michigan State (incorrect)

Lock:  5-3-1

Season 76-77-3