2016 PRI Ratings, Week 9

I add the perfomance metric (PRI+) next week.

I was thinking about the Big 12 and their performance this season, and their low placing makes sense.  What's their signature out of conference win?  OkState over Pitt?  WVA over BYU?  Texas over Notre Dame?

To me there is a clear top 5 now, a combination of what I've seen and how the prevailing winds are blowing:  Alabama, Washington, Clemson, Michigan and Ohio State, with the game at the end of the season between the latter two, the Alabama/LSU game and the Apple Cup seemingly the only opportunities to shake things up.  It will be interesting to see if these five consolidate their positions at the top of the ratings, especially Washington whose schedule will improve in November.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Oklahoma -40.5 v. Kansas

I think my undefeated streak comes to an end this weekend.  I just don't trust the Oklahoma defense enough to win by nearly 7 touchdowns, even against a 1-6 team.  Just about every computer projection I've looked at agrees as well.

Last week:  West Virginia -6 v. Texas Christian (correct)
Season:  7-0-1
Season overall:  65-72-2 (-$1530, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Week 8 Ratings

Surprised the Pac-12 is doing so well, and the Big 12 doing so poorly.  I know it's a down year for the latter, but to that degree?

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

West Virginia -6 v. Texas Christian

I'll take the WVU defense at home v. Kenny Hill.

Last week:  Utah - 9 @ Oregon State(correct)
Season:  6-0-1
Season overall:  58-61-1 (-$1570, assuming $110 bets)

2017 Ratings, Week 7

Northwestern is a flawed rating to be sure, due to counting FCS games as null placeholders and nothing more.  I really have never come up with a good penalty for losing to that type of opposition, mainly because teams losing to such competition aren't very good in the first place.  Washington State is proving that not to be the case however.

I find it interesting that in a year where I believe in so few teams that I largely agree with this product so early in the season.

Week-to-week changes are now visible under the Delta tab.  Minnesota up 55 spots and Army down 53 spots are your biggest movers.  Such volatility is common at this part of the season.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Utah - 9 @ Oregon State

Utah is pretty beat up and while Oregon State isn't all that good, they are improved and their defense can at least be described as mediocre.  Include some pretty squalid weather in Corvallis, and it's hard to see Utah winning by double digits.

Last week:  Texas A&M -6.5 v. Tennessee (correct)
Season:  5-0-1
Season overall:  49-52-1 (-$1480, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Ratings, Week 6

I think this is a good time to release the first batch of ratings:



Schedule strength and road wins dominate at this time of year, which explains Troy at number 9, and generally spots 7-9.  Still, for the first set of this season, these numbers aren't too outlandish.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

The first batch of ratings will come out next week.

Texas A&M -6.5 v. Tennessee.

Betting Aggie twice in a season is probably the end to my undefeated start.  However, they have a good defense and Tennessee is in the midst of a brutal 4-game stretch.  Entertaining as they may be, the Vols' antics are simply not sustainable.

Last week:  Washington -3.5 v. Stanford (correct)
Season:  4-0-1
Season overall:  38-48-1 (-$1480, assuming $110 bets)