2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

Ohio State -1 @ Michigan
Stanford -3.5 v. Notre Dame

Ohio State is in disarray.  Notre Dame is crippled by injuries and has a terrible time with turnovers on the road.

Last week:  Oklahoma State v. Baylor, 77.5 under (incorrect)
Season:  6-7-1

2015 Ratings, Week 12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Eo_9bZkbYN8rjY1SEZgysFbigmlIEGyz6Spu_UMx2I4/edit?usp=sharing

Pretty thrilled.  The five teams I think have the best shot to make the playoff, Clemson, MSU, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Alabama, are all in the top 20.  Even Alabama's bye week didn't hurt them like it usually does every year.

And for all the bellyaching done all year about Baylor's schedule, look at Iowa's.  You'll have to scroll down a bit.  Sagarin "agrees" with me, having the teams at 65 and 62 respectively.  I saw a writer point out today that Iowa played Pitt, and even more humorously, Iowa State out of conference.  I guess it counts less if you play Iowa State in-conference.

If MSU had not lost to Nebraska, their coefficient would be a full .0700 ahead of Toledo.  They would be as far ahead of second as second is ahead of 35th.  Road wins and a SOS that improves leaps and bounds every week will do that.  I do hope that they don't suffer the fate of Central Florida:  finished first in 2013, currently 124th.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

I was a bit smug before last week's pick, and paid for it, going 6-14 overall.  Staying away from the spreads this week, but sticking with Baylor games.

Baylor @ Oklahoma State, total points 77.5 (Under)

Oklahoma State has a man's pass defense, Stidham is not 100% and Baylor on the road are factors that I think that keeps the game in the 30's.

Last week:  Baylor -2.5 v. Oklahoma (incorrect)
Season:  6-6-1

Hey, when you're right 50% of the time, you're wrong 50% of the time.

2015 Ratings, Week 11

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zT8mIHRlwT6tXAA6xkUN0pOOi0QVmjWn2NiAAwOEhYQ/edit?usp=sharing

Stanford loses, flip flops with Notre Dame.

Boise loses to New Mexico, plummets to 86th.  New Mexico is the lowest bowl eligible team at 109th.  That's so Bob Davie.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

Baylor -2.5 v. Oklahoma

 

Baylor opened at -6 and has been bet down. This game is being overthought.  Here is what to consider:

Is Mike Stoops Oklahoma's DC?  Yes.

Has Mike Stoops figured out how to slow down Baylor?  Unlikely.

Is the game in Waco?  Yes.

Thanks for lowering the line, people.  It's 2015, and it's Oklahoma that has the burden of proof.

Last week:  Mississippi -10 v. Arkansas (incorrect)

Season: 6-5-1

1-1 these last two weeks, which is about what I expected.

2015 Ratings, Week 10

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yx0cDLWOymlFMO1Q3OYGVER6x0JVYt5nGqyd1TEAl0s/edit?usp=sharing

The Beano Cook edition.

This week brings with it the PRI+ metric, which adds a margin of victory calculation as a modifier.  This would explain Bowling Green and Houston's high placement.  They're not only burying teams, but burying them by a much wider margin that their statistical profile would suggest.

2015 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

Mississippi -10 v. Arkansas

I don't think much of Mississippi. I think it will be hilarious if they win the SEC West.  I do think they're 10 points better than Arkansas at home, however.

Last week:  Michigan -14 @ Minnesota (correct)

Season:  6-4-1

2015 Ratings, Week 9

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OtPLML1Oc9SIGPl3yv6WanXrY3SUM30M9sd7HeogIlo/edit?usp=sharing

These are the ratings people should be waiting for on Tuesday nights.  Not devised by some AD's in a room somewhere in Dallas, moving the goalposts as they go and rendered useless by next week.  Ratings arrived at using empirical data.

Road wins by teams with quality resumes were the biggest movers this week.