2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 5

Wisconsin -24.5 v. Northwestern

This opened at -21 and I still think it's too low.  2 reasons why I think this is depressed:

-Let down after a big win over Michigan.  But this is also a division game and a revenge spot for Wisconsin.

-Northwestern's defensive numbers look good on first glance.  I believe they are inflated thanks to playing some pretty poor offenses.  MSU was the best they've faced thus far.  Think about that.

Of course, the next good offense Wisconsin plays will also be their first.  Northwestern will not be the first, however.

Last week:  Oklahoma State +6 @ Texas (push)

Season 1-2-1 (-$120)

Overall: 38-36-2 ($-160)

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

Oklahoma State +6 @ Texas

Take the points in a shootout.  Important to note that Texas is 105th in the country in passing yards allowed per attempt (7.8 to Rice last week who only had 12 completions).  OkState has won the last 4 in the series overall and the last 5 games in Austin, last losing in 2008.

Last week:  Alabama -25.5 @ South Carolina (incorrect)

Season 1-2 (-$120)

Overall: 31-24-1 ($460)

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

One of the things I am analyzing is how these betting lines move from when they open to Friday morning when I make my picks.  Arbitrarily considering an 2.5 point or greater amount in either direction as a significant swing, the trend correctly picked 8 of 9 games last week and barely missed on the 9th.

Alabama -25.5 @ South Carolina.

So as an experiment, I am using this trend to guide me this week as Alabama has moved from -21 to -25.5 over the course of the week.  It also helps that South Carolina is still finding its way on offense with a true freshman QB.

Last week:  Iowa -20 v. Rutgers (correct)

Season 1-1 (-$10)

Overall: 21-17 ($230)

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

Iowa -20 v. Rutgers

Not going to overthink this one.  Let's take somehow-ranked-20th Iowa in a routine victory over a Rutgers team that struggled with UMass and has to make a long road trip.

Last week:  Ohio State -27.5 v. Florida Atlantic (incorrect)

Season 0-1

Thanks for taking a nap after the first quarter, Buckeyes.  Amazing how that's been glossed over.