2014 Bowl-o-Rama, NYE-NYD

TCU -3 v. Mississippi
Arizona -3 v. Boise State
Mississippi State -6.5 v. Georgia Tech
Auburn -6.5 v. Wisconsin
Missouri -4.5 v. Minnesota
Baylor -2.5 v. Michigan State
Oregon -8 v. Florida State
Alabama -9 v. Ohio State

Bowl Season:  12-12

2014 Bowl-o-Rama, 12/29-30

Well, that was a post Xmas catastrophe.

Liberty:  West Virginia -1.5 v. Texas A&M
Russell Athletic:  Oklahoma -4.5 v. Clemson
Texas:  Arkansas -6.5 v. Texas
Music City:  LSU -7 v. Notre Dame
Belk:  Georgia -6.5 v. Louisville
Foster Farms:  Stanford -14 v. Maryland

Bowl Season:  9-9

2014 Bowl-o-Rama, 12/26-27

Heart Of Dallas:  Louisiana Tech -6 v. Illinois
Quick Lane:  North Carolina -3 v. Rutgers
St. Pete:  Central Florida -2.5 v. North Carolina State
Military:  Cincinnati -2.5 v. Virginia Tech
Sun:  Arizona State -7.5 v. Duke
Independence:  Miami -3.5 v. South Carolina
Pinstripe:  Boston College -2.5 v. Penn State
Holiday:  USC -7 v.  Nebraska

Bowl Season:  7-3

2014 Final PRI Ratings

As usual, these ratings are regular season games only.  Conference championship games are post-season, and would make little difference in the final calculations.





X = bowl berth, 6 = New Year's Six berth, P = playoff berth

Bowl-o-Rama, Pre-Xmas Program

The best way to rebound after a poor season picking games is to pick bowl games between non-power 5 teams, some of whom I haven't seen a snap of this season.  I went 20-15 last season, despite a 0-for-First Saturday which I'd like to avoid today.

New Orleans:  Nevada -1.5 v. ULLAF
New Mexico:  Utah State -10 v. UTEP
Las Vegas:  Utah -2 v. Colorado State
Potato:  Western Michigan -2 v. Air Force
Camellia:  South Alabama -2 v. Bowling Green
Miami Beach:  Memphis -2 v. BYU
Boca Raton:  Marshall -10 v. Northern Illinois
Pointsettia:  San Diego State v. Navy
Bahamas:  Western Kentucky -3 v. Central Michigan
Hawaii:  Rice -2.5 v. Fresno State

Happy holidays and thank you for your patronage.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 15

It's been a terrible year, so let's finish by picking a game between two terrible teams on Championship Saturday.

Connecticut -12 v. SMU

I'll be watching, might be the only one.

Last week:  Louisville -13 v. Kentucky (incorrect)

Season:  7-13-1

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

Louisville -13.5 v. Kentucky

Rivalry week is a tough week to forecast, so I'll take a quality defense against a middling team in a division won by Indiana.

Last week:

Maryland @ Michigan Total Points:  43 (correct)

Missouri @ Tennessee Total Points:  49 (incorrect)

Under on both.  Lost by one point on the latter game.

Season:  7-12-1

2014 Week 13 Ratings

It does give off some wonky ratings some times, but at least I don't rely on this garbage:

"Jeff Long just said the committee takes into account that some of Mississippi State's wins came against teams previously ranked."

Meet the new boss.

2014 Lock Of The Week Week 13

Maryland @ Michigan Total Points:  43

Missouri @ Tennessee Total Points:  49

Under on both.  Tennessee might have the best offense of the four teams above, and they face a stout Mizzou defense.  The weather will be pretty putrid in Ann Arbor to boot.

 

Last week: Miami (FL) -2.5 v. Florida State (correct)

Season: 6-11-1

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 12

Hilarious Texas rating!  No, there isn't a "plays six games in my hometown" bonus.

That Maryland rating is pretty funny too, even moreso when they rank above the SEC favorites after the SEC/FCS challenge this coming weekend.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

We trudge on.

Florida State -2.5 @ Miami (FL)

Despite my new strategy, I'm still picking results I think would happen.  This line is preposterous and I will gladly take Florida State at such a short price.

Season:  5-11-1

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 11

Strange to see Oklahoma as our massively overrated team of 2014.

Big wins have moved some schools up into the upper tier of things.  Might make me reconsider my stance on Arizona State and Ohio State, but boy did they suffer a bad loss when they lost.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

Arizona State -2.5 v. Notre Dame

Two clown frauds meet in the desert.  I trust Notre Dame for two reasons:  coaching advantage favors ND and the last time Arizona State played teams that have something resembling a offense, they gave up 100 combined over back-to-back weeks.  Give up 66 to UCLA?  Bet the other way.

Last week:

Georgia v. Florida total points 47 under

Kansas State -11.5 v. Oklahoma State

Season:  5-10-1.  Who would have thought Florida could score 38 in a SEC game?

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 10

Now with the PRI+ performance metric.  This calculation lessens the impact of schedule strength has more emphasis on record and a margin of victory component.  You can see the difference between the two formulas on the Delta+ tab.

I expect a sizeable fall for the Mississippi schools next week, both of whom have FCS opposition on the docket this week.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

Georgia v. Florida total points 47 under

Kansas State -11.5 v. Oklahoma State

Two of the teams above lack a offense, making these smart plays. 

 

Last week:

Mississippi State -15 @ Kentucky

Michigan @ Michigan State total points 48.5 under

Syracuse @ Clemson total points 47.5 under

2-1 last week means 4-9-1 for the season.  Clawing back to respectability.

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 9

The Massey Index culls data from 101 different computer rankings.  All 101 computers had four SEC teams in the top 4.  Obviously, these are not included in that index, but I'm still pretty pleased with what I am seeing so far.

The new methodology I experimented with in the spring will be posted next week.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

It's a triple barrel week, because when you're the Angel Of Death, why not.

Mississippi State -15 @ Kentucky

Michigan @ Michigan State total points 48.5 under

Syracuse @ Clemson total points 47.5 under

Yeah, betting on Michigan State and Clemson games. When you're 2-8-1 on the season, again, why not?

Last week:  Baylor -7.5 @ West Virginia (incorrect)

2014 Ratings, Week 8

Pretty volatile results from Week 6 to now, as you'll be able to see on the Delta tab.  Teams adding road wins to their resume tend to have that happen.

The numbers like Mississippi State more than I do, and agree with the analytics crowd on Ohio State. Very curious to see what happens when I add the performance element in a couple of weeks.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

So this happened:




Yikes.  For this week:

Baylor -7.5 @ West Virginia

West Virginia's defense is still pretty porous:  92nd in yards per play allowed.  They're improved, but they also had their own come from behind victory last week against far lesser opposition.  At least I can recall that sequence; parts of Saturday are a bit fuzzy, may need to cut back on the 100-proof Trons next year.

Last week:  Georgia -3 @ Missouri

                    East Carolina -16 @ South Florida

 

Both incorrect.  Season:  2-7-1

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Another double barrel week, and I made the decision to bet on the Georgia game before Gurley got suspended.  I think I was due.

Georgia -3 @ Missouri
East Carolina -16 @ South Florida

Last week:

Alabama -6.5 @ Mississippi (incorrect)

Kansas State -12.5 v. Texas Tech (correct)

Season:  2-5-1

2014 Ratings, Week 6

Here are the first ratings of the season.  No idea when updates will be coming, the next one will be after week 8 due to travel.  I'll probably begin correlations that week as well.  As shown last year, this system rewards winning on the road, and the teams close to the top have multiple road wins through six weeks of play.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

Yes, there was a lock made last week I just forgot to post it.

It's another double barrel week:

Alabama -6.5 @ Mississippi

I expect a comfortable Alabama win.  Mississippi is perhaps the most overrated team in the country, based on SEC and a good fourth quarter against a Boise State team that lost to Air Force last week.  Plus, Saban had a bye week.

Kansas State -12.5 v. Texas Tech

TxTech's QB is injured and may not play, their defense is woeful, and the entire team lacks discipline.  K-State is the opposite of those three things, and the game is in Manhattan.

Last week:  Stanford -7 @ Washington (push)  Way to stop the rot.

Season: 1-4-1

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

Michigan State -45.5 v. Eastern Michigan

Vegas is expecting the score of this game to be 49-3.  That's definitely on the table, and Eastern is the worst team in 1-A according to Sagarin at the moment, but this is just too many points to pass up.

Last Week:  UCLA -7 v. Texas (incorrect).  Jerry Neuheisel...knew as soon as he showed up that lock was busted.

Season:  1-3

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

Not the best week if you were a fan of the sport.

A thin Saturday slate means there is a thin selection of appealing lines this week.

UCLA -7 v. Texas

Frankly, this is a narrow line because people are, justifiably, unimpressed with the Bruins.  I'll take that narrow line because Texas' offense is inert at the moment.  But I'm not brimming with confidence here.

Last week:  Michigan v. Notre Dame.  Total points 56, taking the over.   (Incorrect)

Season:  1-2

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

Week 2 is fraught with peril, with loads of overreaction to one game that featured months of preparation.  Dangerous, tantalizing point spreads out there.

So I'm avoiding them entirely.

Michigan v. Notre Dame.  Total points 56, taking the over.

Game seems primed for a shootout.

Last week: 1-1.  Auburn yay, FSU nay.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 1

After slumping to a 6-10-1 season last year, we begin fresh with two picks for your consideration:

Auburn -18 v. Arkansas 

Arkansas is so far behind their SEC West brethren and simply lacks the defense to keep this close.

Florida State -17.5 v. Oklahoma State

Similarly, Oklahoma State lost everyone from their defense last year, and now has to face the Florida State offense.  Whoops.

2014 Preview

Greetings friends!  I am one happy dude because the college football season is almost upon us.  Please enjoy these projections:






Conference Championships:

Florida State over Pitt (I'm way too bullish on Pitt, far too low on Penn State)
Michigan State over Wisconsin
Marshall over Rice
Bowling Green over Ball State
Utah State over Fresno State
Oregon over UCLA
South Carolina over LSU

No bowl projections.  Far too much ambiguity with this new system to make it a worthwhile endeavor.

PLAYOFFS?!?

Florida State over Oklahoma
Michigan State over South Carolina

Can't see 2-loss LSU in over MSU and OU squads with quality wins.  Same with Oregon.

Florida State over Michigan State.  I'll believe Michigan State reaching these heady heights when I see it.

2013 PRI+ Ratings

For the last 6-8 weeks, I have been working on adding a performance metric to my football ratings, and I am very pleased to reveal them to you now:



I was not interested in adding a simple margin of victory component, instead creating a calculation that considered:

-who did you play
-what was the expected margin of victory (h/t here:  http://www.footballstudyhall.com/picks)
-what was the actual margin of victory

Some selected examples:

Florida State v. Clemson:  Both teams had double digit wins and could be considered upper echelon teams, or "equals".  FSU was expected to win by 4, ended up winning by 37.  This results in a big bonus for Florida State, and a big penalty for Clemson.

Florida State v. Syracuse:  An elite team v. a mediocre team.  FSU expected to win by 43, won by 56.  Small bonus for FSU, small penalty for Syracuse.

Central Florida v. Temple:  Elite v. Poor.  UCF expected to win by 30, won only by 3.  Big penalty for Central Florida, big bonus for Temple.

I'll be keeping track of the old and new methods next season (PRI/PRI+) although the latter will most likely not be calculated until later in the season.

2013 Predictions Revisited

Better late than never.  I've actually had these ready to go for a while, but shifted my attention towards working on the margin of victory component, which is taking a lot of time.  I hope to have a finished product ready for your reading no later than May.

Much to my surprise, considering how badly I underestimated about half of the eventual BCS participants, I actually did better than last year, missing on average of 1.96 games per team.

2013 Gambling Results

The most perplexing aspect of the 2013 season was my dismal Lock Of The Week performance, despite my weekly picks being quite clairvoyant most weeks.  I present them to you now:



I picked the top 25 teams/Michigan/Michigan State games against FBS opposition against the spread.

155-134-9 on the year.  Red = locks of the week.  Some weeks I picked against the over/under line, which is not listed here.

2013 Final PRI Ratings

For your reading pleasure.  Added to the year end ratings is a comparison with Sagarin's strength of schedule to my own as well as a non-conference strength of schedule rating.  Also, given the conference championships mainly provided us with fresh matchups between teams with stellar records, I have provided you a comparison had those games been included in the calculations.  As I've seen in the past, there is very little change.



My ratings go back to 2003.  The worst-ranking BCS teams in their respective year:

2003 Kansas State 77th
2004 Pittsburgh 51st
2005 Florida State 70th
2006 Wake Forest 21st
2007 Hawaii 49th
2008 Virginia Tech 53rd
2009 Iowa 17th
2010 Connecticut 71st
2011 Wisconsin 53rd
2012 Florida State 55th
2013 Clemson 42nd

Coming soon:

-A year-by-year comparison
-A look at my gambling prowess this season
-A sure-to-be-hilarious look at my preseason predictions
-2013 as calculated differently.  I've been working on tweaks to the formula in my head.

2014 Bowl-O-Rama, Finale

Florida State -10 v. Auburn

I mean, if I'm going to pick FSU -57 v. Idaho, might as well.

Bowl Season:  20-14.  An incredible record since that 0-4 clunker to start the season.

I thank you for your patronage.  Plenty more coming this month.

2014 Bowl-O-Rama, Days 10-13

Sugar: Alabama -17 v. Oklahoma
Orange:  Ohio State -3 v. Clemson
Cotton:  Oklahoma State -1.5 v. Missouri
BBVA Compass:  Vanderbilt -3 v. Houston
GoDaddy:  Ball State -9 v. Arkansas State

Bowl Season:  17-12

If You'll Indulge Me

Who's bad now, boss?

2014 Bowl-O-Rama, New Years Day Edition

Heart Of Dallas:  North Texas -7 v. UNLV
Gator:  Georgia -9 v. Nebraska
Citrus:  Wisconsin -1.5 v. South Carolina
Outback:  LSU -7.5 v. Iowa
Rose:  Stanford -7 v. Michigan State
Fiesta:  Baylor -17 v. Central Florida

Bowl Season:  13-10