2018-19 Bowl Picks

Updated as the bowling goes on.

2018 Final PRI Ratings

The "EFF" calculation factors in a team's offensive and defensive efficiencies via ESPN FPI and lessens the schedule strength component somewhat.

This definitely was a year where more than just the raw calculations were required.  At first I thought the struggle was with the perception that there was a glut of mediocrity this year.  However, comparing to 2017, we had about as many 9 win teams and teams with 5-7 wins then as we do today, so I think it was more instead of having 45-50 teams evenly spread across college football, you still had the same # of teams but had 18-20 of those teams concentrated in the ACC Coastal, Big Ten West and Pac-12 South.

I'm concerned about how the inevitable 8-team playoff is going to shake itself out.  Given that the seemingly obvious Power 5 champions/Best Group of 5/2 at-large is imperfect and has obvious pratfalls (aka The Rose Bowl Question), will the committee keep largely the same system in place and just flesh out the field with whatever SEC teams look the best?  9-3 Florida, with two wins over FCS teams, getting in to the NY6 over 10-2 Washington State (who were robbed against USC) is a bit of a joke.  And is Central Florida really the best G5 representative?  The American was dreadful this year, and I think Fresno State would give them a competitve game if not win outright.