2019 Week 9 Ratings

I grant that it is a top heavy season with a lot of backloaded schedules, but some of those schedule strength numbers at the top of the table are abysmal.  Alabama's in particular is alarming, and they haven't even had their SoCon Challenge game yet!

No one can hold a candle to UAB however:  of their 7 opponents so far, 5 lack a FBS win.

I think SMU/Cincinnati/Memphis will be the G5 king this year.  The former two both still have to go to Memphis, but wouldn't play each other until the AAC Conference Game.

PRI+ might have some value as a gambling aid in finding teams that are over/undervalued.  Fading teams like MSU and Georgia might be good plays.

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Last week was poor overall, but I nailed the lock and the biggest upset of the day.  I'll take that.

Minnesota -16.5 v. Maryland

Two teams moving in opposite directions.  The statistical profiles I look at have Minnesota as the likeliest favorite of the weekend, and even that doesn't figure in how excellent Minnesota has been (against nobodies, but Maryland fits that description) recently and how bad Maryland has been in the same time frame.

Also factor in that this is a hilariously long conference road trip for Maryland.

Last week:  Florida -4.5 @ South Carolina (correct)

Season 2-5-1 (-$350)

Overall: 71-75-2 (-$1150)

2019 Week 8 Ratings

Auburn getting that sweet schedule strength bounce.

Here are some teams from something that caught my eye while working this out:

Boston College

Michigan State

Florida State

Michigan

Iowa

Generally speaking, watching these teams on offense has been like watching a car with bad sparkplugs sputter down the road.  And yet they all rank between 40-60 in ESPN Offensive FPI.  How fun it must be to watch teams well below that standard.  Also buttresses my thinking that there just aren't a lot of great offensive coordinators at the moment.

Illinois is 111th, it should be noted.  Which makes sense for a team that had zero plays in the red zone Saturday.

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

After the noon kickoffs last week, I went 7-4.  Maybe that's some sort of omen?  This is up far later than usual because I agonized over what to pick, as one tends to do when they haven't picked a winner in 6 weeks.

Florida -4.5 @ South Carolina

Not learning my lesson about back-to-back road teams apparently.  Or noon games.  Or betting against South Carolina at home (I missed on Alabama in week 3 to start this run of futility). But this is more of a situational play with the public being a bit too high on South Carolina due to their enjoyable-yet-fortunate upset last week.

I like this pick better than any of the large spreads I'm fading.

Last week:  Memphis -5.5 @ Temple (incorrect)

Season 1-5-1 (-$430)

Overall: 63-62-2 (-$520)

2019 Week 7 Ratings

Not much to add this week.  EFF still seems to be the way to go.

Week-to-week deltas for all three ratings are available for your perusal.

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

I honestly would take this week off if it were actual money as nothing really fills me with a great degree of confidence.  But if I were to bet:

Memphis -5.5 @ Temple

Eventually, Temple's offense fails to keep up with Memphis' is my thinking for this week.

Last week:  Utah State -27.5 @ LSU (incorrect)

Season 1-4-1 (-$340)

Overall: 54-53-2 (-$430)

2019 Week 6 Ratings

I'm trying out a different presentation format since I'll be sharing all three of my calculations right from the start.

PRI - the classic formula

PRI+ - includes expected margin of victory vs. actual

EFF - includes each team's offensive and defensive efficiencies as determined by ESPN FPI

I have the document sorted by EFF as that clearly seems to be the more accurate reading of the season at the moment.  Otherwise, I think this would have been too early in the season to begin calculations with early season byes/FCS games/insane schedule strength/unusual home-road splits skewing things even more than they historically have early in the season.

Will EFF become the main model?  Time will tell but I'm pleased with how it looks so far after one week of use.  It still throws out some wackiness like #11 Tulsa, but definitely places Rice in a more accurate (yet still inflated) position.

Still, the old formula gave us #1 SMU v. #2 Tulsa in the game of last weekend, so there is that.

2019 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

Utah State +27.5 @ LSU

I'm taking a huge group of 5 underdog on the road against one of the best teams in the country.  Let me explain:

-Teams favored by what I consider to be Super Large spreads (≥27 points) do not successfully cover the later a season gets

-Of the eight projections I look at for each game, each one has Utah State covering.  While the standard deviation of those projections is not ideal for locking, all of them being in agreement is a good trend:  of the 91 games tracked so far, only one has had all the models miss.

-The statistical matchup does not suggest this is a 4TD spread against such a disciplined team like Utah State.

Last week:  Wisconsin -24.5 v. Northwestern (incorrect)

Season 1-3-1 (-$230)

Overall: 48-43-2 ($70)