2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 10

Will we ever reach Mt. .500?  Will there ever be a rainbow?  Next two days are key.

Music City:  Vanderbilt -7 v. North Carolina State
Sun:  USC -7.5 v. Georgia Tech
Liberty:  Iowa State -1.5 v. Tulsa
Peach:  LSU -6 v. Clemson

Bowl Season:  7-12

2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 9

That was a pretty awful day of football, no?  And I'm not even talking about the fact I went 0-3.

Armed Forces:  Air Force -2.5 v. Rice

Pinstripe:  West Virginia -4 v. Syracuse

Kraft Fight Hunger:  Arizona State -14 v. Navy

Alamo:  Oregon State -3.5 v. Texas

BWW:  TCU -2 v. Michigan State

Bowl Season 4-10

2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 8

Yesterday was quite the day full of back door covers, but I'll take the 2-1 record anytime.  Let's keep that rolling today.

Independence Bowl:  ULM -7 v. Ohio
Russell Athletic:  Virginia Tech -1 v. Rutgers
Texas:  Texas Tech -13.5 v. Minnesota

Bowl season:  4-7

2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 7

And I am on tilt at the moment.  3 games today, going with all three favorites.

Military:  San Jose St -7 v. Bowling Green
Belk:  Cincinnati -9 v. Duke
Holiday:  UCLA -3 v. Baylor

Bowl Season: 2-6

2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 6

Western Kentucky -6 v. Central Michigan

Bowl Season:  2-5

2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 5

The summit of Mount .500 will not be reached by Christmas.

Hawaii Bowl:  Fresno State -12 v. SMU

Bowl Season 2-4

2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 4

My goal is to be over .500 by Christmas.  That begins today.

New Orleans Bowl:  ULLAF -7 v. East Carolina

Las Vegas Bowl:  Boise State -6 v. Washington

Bowl Season:  1-3

2012 Bowl-o-rama, Day 3

That pick last night was looking good for 3 quarters.  Too bad they play four.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl:  Central Florida -7 v. Ball State

Bowl Season:  1-2

Bowl-o-rama, Day 2

BYU - 3 v. San Diego State

Bowl season:  1-1

2012-13 Bowl-o-rama, Day 1

Let the feast begin with a couple of entertaining games.  And don't forget about today's 1-AA semifinal on ESPNU.

New Mexico Bowl:  Arizona -9 v. Nevada
Idaho Potato Bowl:  Utah State -10.5 v. Toledo

Last year:  15-20

Final 2012 Ratings - Comparisons

At the close of the season, I decided to compare my ratings with some others that are floating around out there:

-Football Outsiders F/+ ratings has been compared throughout the season since Week 7:  http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus2012




-Colley's Bias Free Matrix Rankings are the only portion of the BCS computer component whose methodology is made public:  http://www.colleyrankings.com/



-Jeff Sagarin's schedule strength is compared:



Interesting looks to be sure.  It's nice to see a methodology that took a little effort to create beyond being some fat hack making ad hoc arguments.

Bowl-o-rama begins Saturday. Picks everyday. I thank you for your readership, as always.

Final 2012 Ratings

In an effort to make things easier to consume, the final ratings of the season are broken up into a couple of posts.  Coming early next week will be the comparison with F/+ rankings from Football Outsiders, plus a comparison with the Colley Ratings Matrix, the only part of the BCS computers made public and a comparison with Jeff Sagarin's Strength of Schedule calculations.



Bold X's are BCS teams. MTSU and LaTech being the highest ranked teams not going bowling aren't surprises. Air Force is the lowest-rated bowl team at 107th, which is also not unusual.

If you removed any sort of identifiers from the resumes of Florida State, Louisville and Northern Illinois, they would appear to be the same team.  Yet, Northern Illinois is being vilified as receiving some sort of undeserved charity due to their loss against Iowa, while Louisville is there after winning a league that's at best equal to the MAC, while losing at home to a crappy UConn team.  It's lazy, dishonest punditry like what has been heard this past week that caused me to start these ratings in the first place.

I'd be inclined to name Notre Dame, Kansas State, Oregon and Florida as a 4-team playoff based on their resumes here.  I'm hard-pressed to include Alabama (although I can see the argument for them over K-State), who are only in ahead of Oregon due to:

a)losing one week before and
b)only falling three spots in the polls after their loss when Oregon fell four

Alabama's strength of schedule really took a beating over the last month of the season.  Western Carolina and Auburn did them no favors, nor did fading Mississippi State.

Biggest gain from Week 6 to Week 14, Northwestern, 81 places
Biggest loss from Week 6 to Week 14, Tulane, 89 places

Finally, a look at each team's average placement throughout the season:

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 14

The final lock of the season.  But there will be 35 bowl picks! 

Lots of pressure here, I'm going for my third consecutive year of 10 wins.

Boise State v. Nevada Total Points = 59, Under  Boise's defense is stout, but their offense isn't effective enough to push the total up to 60 points.

Last week: Northern Illinois -21 @ Eastern Michigan.  (Correct)

Season:  9-4

Week 13 Ratings

Always sad to come to the end of any season, even one like this one which has been sorta "meh".  Final ratings come after the Army-Navy game.





Largest gain from Week 12:  Baylor 79 -> 41, 38 places

Largest loss from Week 12:  Florida International 52 -> 81, 29 places

Cristobal should have jumped on that Rutgers train.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Northern Illinois -21 @ Eastern Michigan.  I am going with Jordan Lynch and the Huskies here.  Eastern is sure to be let down after their big rivalry win over Western which cost their coach his job.

Last week:  Michigan State -7 v. Northwestern.  (Correct)

Season: 8-4

Week 12 Ratings

The pre-Thanksgiving week tumble of various SEC teams because they decided to feast on some cupcakes from the 1-AA Bakery.





Biggest gain from Week 11: Arkansas State, 55 -> 19, 36 places

Biggest loss from Week 11:  Kentucky, 40 -> 83, 43 places

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 12

I've been waiting all year to play this card, and with a real thin slate of games to pick from Saturday, it's time to play it.

Michigan State -7 v. Northwestern.  Michigan State is giving way too many points for a team that has been dog shit offensively all year, even if betting on MSU games, like Clemson, is a dangerous game.

Last week: South Carolina -14 v. Arkansas.

Season:  7-4

Week 11 Ratings

You know, it's pretty cruel that Kentucky and Colorado have to play the first and third toughest schedule in the land, respectively.  Perhaps they should be relegated to the ACC, which if you took Florida State out of the conference, would be the worst performer this year.  Even behind C-USA.





Biggest gain from Week 10: Bowling Green 94 -> 62, 32 places

Biggest loss from Week 10: Tulane 86 -> 109, 23 places

Sorry, Tulane.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 11

South Carolina -14 v. Arkansas

Spurrier gets a bye week to prepare for a home game against Arkansas, a team that quit long ago.  Seems fairly straight-forward to me.

Last week:  Alabama @ LSU, total points 40 Under (correct)

Narrow victory but I'll take it.  Thankful Yeldon shook that dude because overtime would have been a killer.

Season:  6-4

Week 10 Ratings

We have consensus at number 1.  The AP, BCS, PRI and F/+ all agree that Alabama is number 1.





Biggest gain from Week 9:  San Diego State 97 -> 58, 39 places
Biggest loss from Week 9:  New Mexico 59 -> 89, 30 places




Things diverge fairly quickly after the top 9 or so.

Lock of the Week, Week 10

I haven't predicted this game correctly the last two meetings.  But I'm going to give it another shot:

Alabama at LSU, total points 40, taking the Under.

With that pick made, look for a 38-35 shootout.

Last week:  Ohio -7 at Miami (OH).  Incorrect.  Thanks, Solich.

Season:  5-4

Week 9 Ratings

As expected, Florida could have won 10 cocktail parties this weekend, and their grip on #1 wouldn't have lasted.






Biggest gain from Week 8:  Indiana 82 -> 40, 42 places
Biggest drop from Week 8:  Temple 57 -> 94, 37 places

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Let's keep the momentum going with a trip to the MAC:

Ohio -7 at Miami (OH)

Last week:  Oregon State -10 v. Utah.  Pac-12 Saturday night snoozers are not the easiest thing to watch, even with a rooting interest.

Season:  5-3

Week 8 Ratings

Internet connectivity, can't live without it.  Please check the previous weeks for some revised ratings, I noticed a couple of calculation errors.

Everything is included in this post, including the F/+ comparison.  Nice to see that a fellow math-based formula overrated my alma mater.





Biggest gain from Week 7:  Oregon, 96 -> 42, 54 places
Biggest loss from Week 7:  Rice 30 -> 73, 43 places

Road wins @ Weis mean a lot, apparently.

F/+ Comparison:

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 8

Oregon State -10 v. Utah.  The trend of picking against teams with terrible offenses continues.  I almost picked Michigan by a similar line, but I haven't seen a snap of them since the first half of the Alabama game and have no clue how their offense stacks up against the MSU defense.  MSU could be shut out for the first time since 2000, which was also against Michigan.

Last week:  Notre Dame v. Stanford Total Points:  44, Under.  (Correct)  I think the refs totally jobbed Stanford here, but a win's a win.

Season:  4-3

Week 7 F/+ Comparison

PRI Ratings, Week 7

Looking at that top 20, it's not too far off from reality.  Yeah, those Sun Belt teams are pretty high, and Michigan State is still living off of a difficult early season schedule and a couple of road wins.



Kentucky's SOS is still insane, and it's no wonder Southern Miss is 0-6.  At the other end, lots of people are praising Larry Coker for a good start at UTSA, but that's bound to happen when you play lots of of FCS and D-II schools.  I can't recall seeing extremes like this at either end.



Biggest gain from Week 11: Northwestern 115 -> 54 61 places
Biggest loss from Week 11: UAB 43 -> 75 32 places

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Another week with difficult lines.  Vegas is doing a solid job this year.  So let's stay away from the spread.

Notre Dame v. Stanford, total points 44.  I'm taking the Under.  Both teams have good defenses.  Both teams have inept offenses.  Ergo, a low-scoring affair.

Last week:  Mississippi State -10 @ Kentucky (correct)

Season:  3-3

Week 6 F/+ Comparison

Comparing the Football Outsiders F/+ rankings to my own:

The biggest differences early on this season mostly come down to the differences in how FCS teams are treated. I treat them as vacated wins, whereas F/+ counts them for their statistical comparisons. The influence of that difference should wane as the season progresses.

Thank you for your support.

PRI Ratings, Week 6

With 6 weeks down, now is a good time to release the first set of rankings for the season. At this point, teams that played a strong non-conference schedule or traveled on the road (for the most part) are going to have better scores than teams who stayed at home and feasted on cream puffs.

The ratings like early season darlings Louisiana-Monroe. I know, Kentucky is up pretty high for a 1-win team. There's a reason for that:

The combined records for Kentucky's opponents this year is a riduculous 28-2.

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 6

First of all, my first set of rankings will be out Sunday, early afternoon.

I'd be doing better if I were playing craps right now, but all is not lost.  Let's end a two-week skid.

Mississippi State -10 @ Kentucky.  Kentucky is pretty bad, particularly on offense.

Last week:  Nebraska -11 v. Wisconsin (incorrect) 

Season:  2-3

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 5

It's a crappy slate of games, and a crappy slate of lines.  I will go with:

Nebraska -11 v. Wisconsin.

I don't trust Nebraska a whole lot, but I trust them to put up enough points to cover against a pedestrian Wisconsin team.

Last week:  Florida State -14 v. Clemson (incorrect)

Dr. Saturday sums up my thoughts on last week nicely:

"So, here's what happened for those who had moved on to better things on a Saturday night: Florida State, which racked up 667 yards, led 49-31 late. Clemson, still trying hard, had a fourth-and-goal with less than 3 minutes left. Tajh Boyd's throwback pass went through a Florida State defender's hands, to Brandon Ford for the Clemson touchdown. For the uninitiated, that's known as a backdoor cover, also termed "a kick in the shorts."

The lesson as always, if Clemson is involved, stay away.

Season:  2-2

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week, Week 4

We attempt to continue the momentum by playing a most dangerous game:

Florida State -14 v. Clemson



This is not a great weekend for betting, but when there are two top-10 teams facing off, and one team is a big favorite other the other, the favorite is a pretty safe bet normally.  The ACC, and Clemson is particular, is not normal, and who knows how much of that spread is FLORIDA STATE IS BACK, BABY, so I may look pretty dumb Saturday night.  Still, going to go with this one.

Last week:  Louisville -3 v. North Carolina (correct, barely).

Season:  2-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 3

Louisville -3 v. North Carolina

Similar to last week.  3 points seems rather narrow for Louisville, at home, against a team with a questionable defense.

Last week:  Cincinnati -4.5 v. Buffalo (correct).

Season: 1-1

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week - Week 2

Early this week because I'm picking the Thursday night game:

Cincinnati -4.5 v. Pittsburgh

Last week:  Georgia -37.5 v. Buffalo (incorrect).

I knew that was a lot of points.

Season: 0-1

For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week - Week 1

Looking for my third consecutive 10-win season.  Let's start with:

Georgia -38 v. Buffalo.  I don't like laying all those points early in the season, but Buffalo is pretty awful.

Last season:  10-4

2012 Predictions: Projected Ratings & Bowl Projections

The always interesting Pittsfield Ratings Index ratings and schedule strength rankings are now available! Not much to say, since every prediction needs to be accurate for these ratings to be correct. My bowl predictions, best I can decipher, follow. Despite the postseason bans for 5 teams, I still had 72 teams to fill up all those games, which will arrive sooner than you think.

FOOTBALL TOMORROW!

2012 Predictions: SEC

LSU over Georgia, just like last year. LSU defeats Alabama in Red Stick on November 3rd, but loses the regular season finale at Arkansas in the sort of wacky rivalry game John L. Smith usually wins. I think they also make the BCS title game. Can a repeat of last year happen? Absolutely, since I don't think Alabama falls too far in the polls after the loss to LSU. Great system.

As for the rest:

Arkansas - In picking this team this year, my mantra was "when in doubt, bet against John L.".

Auburn - Chizik decides to blow up the system on both sides of the ball after Malzahn left. While the defense will be an improvement (Who would hire Ted Roof anymore? Oh right, Penn State), trying to install a pro-style offense with players recruited to the spread and no every down back apparent is a real tall order for a team in the SEC West.

Florida - Speaking of no offense. It's a good thing they play in the SEC East (boy, I could write that a lot) and even then, a winning record is far from assured.

Georgia - This team, even with no proven RB, could go undefeated, but I'm sure they'll find a way to cock up the Florida game.

Kentucky - An offense that puts Florida's in perspective. When you begin to have a talent deficit in relation to the rest of the conference, your slide is fast. See also:

Mississippi - This program has fallen a long way since the baffling ranking of #4 in the AP poll back in 2009. Hugh Freeze is a good hire, but getting this team back to bowl eligibility anytime soon looks like a tall order.

Mississippi State - Whoa, 10-2 Mississippi State?! That was my reaction too, but they have a cupcake nonconference schedule, have their two non Alabama/LSU road games in conference at the two worst teams in the conference, and have every other conference game with teams around their level in Starkville. It's a shaky 10, but it's still 10.

Missouri - I think this team is pretty well-equipped for the SEC. Good offensive skill and a quality defense. Plus, Columbia in November isn't exactly a tropical paradise in what's already an out-of-the-way trip for the rest of the SEC.

South Carolina - That defense is nasty, and the division title comes down to that defense against Georgia in what's usually an entertaining game. If Spurrier could find where ever he misplaced his balls, this team would be unstoppable.

Tennessee - I wonder who Tennessee is going to hire this off-season. Hopefully it quells the rage of Derek Dooley's mother. 7 wins isn't going to cut it.

Texas A&M - A tale of two halves for the Aggies. The first half of the season is most doable. The back half is pretty ugly with three straight division road games. No bye week either, as the LaTech opener was postponed to October on the day of this writing.

Vanderbilt - I love what James Franklin has brought to Vanderbilt. That's right, 8 wins. Could be 9, they get Florida at home. Next post has projected ratings if EVERYTHING goes according to my predictions, plus my best crack at what the bowls will look like. We'll all have a good laugh in December.

2012 Predictions: Pac 12

I like Oregon, after losing at USC on November 3rd, to win the rematch in Los Angeles about a month later. I just don't think you can outscore Oregon twice in such a short time frame. Plus, Kelly is among the best at making adjustments in game. A month is an awful long time for him to scheme.

Arizona Schools - One school made a better hire for the long-term than the other, but neither coach has much to work with this season.

California - Does anyone else have anything to say about Cal, other than Keenan Allen is good, but that his half-brother can't get him the ball unless he rolls out to his left. Does Tedford get fired after 6-6? Can Cal hire anyone better?

Colorado - Losing all of your skill players due to graduation or injury isn't helping things in Boulder. Playing the top of the conference back-to-back-to-back is just piling on.

Oregon State - They stayed in place while everyone else has improved their coaching staff, talent, facilities, or all three. Might be like the old days, rooted to the basement in perpetuity.

Stanford - Yes, an obvious step back with the departure of Luck. Still more talented than the rest of the conference. Recruiting well for a series of years will do that.

UCLA - At least Jim Mora Jr. didn't take out an ad in the LA Times, so he's ahead of Neuheisel at this point. Just don't trust this team to be better than .500.

Utah - Their 10-win total is less a statement about them but more their division, which is Big 12 North level of putrid. Still, a very good defense and I predict they'll beat USC in Salt Lake City on a Thursday night. And then lose the next week at UCLA.

Washington - Yes they have Keith Price. They also have no Chris Polk and no defense. Getting Arizona and Colorado as two of the teams from the other division helps.

Washington State - Mike Leach makes bowl games. Truthfully, they weren't that far off last season. Colorado, Cal and UCLA traveling to Pullman should mean 3 wins.

2012 Predictions: Non-AQ

Presented with little comment

* - Central Florida ineligible for postseason. SMU over East Carolina in conference championship game.

8-4 is a best case for Notre Dame this season. I project losses to Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC. Losses to Purdue and Stanford are not out of the question either. Brian Kelly's face is going to be red if that happens.

Ohio over Western Michigan in conference championship game.

Yes, that's right. I am predicting Boise to not win their conference for the first time in years. Trips to both Nevada and Wyoming present a bit of a stumbling block.

Disagree? Then perhaps you can help me refine this conference. Admittedly, always a bit of a mystery to me.

No, Larry Coker isn't a miracle worker. UTSA plays a lot of 1-AA opponents and even a Division II (Texas A&M-Commerce) team this season. I anticipate they'll be a mainstay at the foot of the ratings table this season.

2012 Predictions: Big 12

The deepest conference in the game.

If I have interpreted the Big 12 tiebreakers correctly, here's how Oklahoma State wins the conference:

- Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State defeats West Virginia, West Virginia defeats Oklahoma, so the teams are 1-1 against each other

- The rules stipulate that you then look at the records of the next highest finisher, in this case TCU. OkState and West Virginia defeat TCU, Oklahoma does not.

-With Oklahoma eliminated, the head to head results gives Oklahoma State the title.

Needless to say, all three teams are pretty even. As for the rest:

Baylor - If I were a Baylor fan, the departure of RGIII doesn't concern me, which is a credit to the job Art Briles has done in building that program from nothing. I'd be concerned when Briles eventually moves on.

Iowa State - I hate picking against Paul Rhoads to make a bowl. You just know that he's going to wreck your season when you visit sleepy Ames on the banks of the Skunk River. OU and WVA should beware.

Kansas - I don't care how big your schematic advantage is, you need talent to compete. Dayne Crist on a lesser team doesn't seem like a particularly good recipe to me.

Kansas State - I saw K-State in Austin last year. I have a hard time thinking of a less likely 10-win team than that squad with their dime store offense. Still, it's unwise to bet against Bill Snyder and bowl eligibility.

Texas Christian - I just came back from visiting their refurbished stadium. Very impressive. This is a good squad and a sound defensive team in this conference is going to make some noise. Tough end of season, though.

Texas - The defense is BCS championship worthy, but in true Mack Brown fashion, he's wishy-washy when it comes to making a decision on his starting QB. David Ash threw some of the worst passes I've ever seen as a freshman (and I've seen Stanley Jackson), and Case McCoy lacks the talent and the upside of his brother. That's going to hold this team back, short of the 10 wins many pundits are predicting.

Texas Tech - The curse of Mike Leach continues. They'll need several upsets to become bowl eligible and that's a tall task in this conference especially with a defense that was atrocious last year.

2012 Predictions: Big 10

Disclaimer 1: I went to Michigan State.

Disclaimer 2: I don't use those pretentious division names.

Disclaimer 3: I am, like most everyone with a brain, not a big fan of Penn State at the moment.

With that out of the way:

* - Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible for post-season play.

Wisconsin over Michigan in the conference title game. Michigan strikes me as a poor match up for Wisconsin.

Illinois - Always has talent, and a schedule that lends itself to 8-9 wins. Better coached than in previous seasons, Zook or no Zook.

Indiana - Well, there's no where to go but up from last year, right? Perhaps they beat Ball State this time. A conference win appears to be a year away.

Iowa - Another cushy schedule. Could win more games if they can figure out why Northwestern is their bogey team. No running game that we know of, but Vandenberg, if nothing else, won't turn the ball over (25 TD to 7 INT last season).

Michigan - Two difficult trips in conference are somewhat mitigated by Michigan State visiting Ann Arbor. I don't think Michigan is the better team, but I just have a gut feeling they're due in the rivalry, you know? However, at Notre Dame and at Purdue have not been easy trips for the coaching tree that Hoke comes from. 7-5 is possible.

Michigan State - Roles reversed with Michigan this year: no conference title game, but a BCS appearance is certain if the prediction is correct, at Michigan and at Wisconsin being the lone losses I see. With that defense, nothing is a sure loss on their schedule. I expect questions about the passing game to be answered quickly.

Minnesota - Jerry Kill gets this team into a bowl game in his second season. They can get two wins in conference. The game at home v. Purdue is the key game for both teams' post-season hopes, and I'll go with Kill and MarQuise Gray. He may not be the best thrower, but the dude's a horse.

Nebraska - One day the media is going to catch up on the fact that Nebraska doesn't play in the Big 12 North anymore. Or that they lost their talent pipeline to Texas. Or that Martinez is a better javelin thrower. Or that they're coached by Pelini. Solich wouldn't have lost at home to Northwestern, I'll tell you that much.

Northwestern - Another year, another 6-7 win season, another bowl appearance without a win. Better than when they laked the posts at any rate.

Ohio State - The only reason that team goes 6-7 last year was due to the suspensions. It's still Ohio State, there's still plenty of talent there. I'm not in love with Urban like the fawning media types, but he's going to win at least 9-10 games a year in Columbus, considering how dire that division is.

Penn State - Coaches that were offensive coordinators for New England have done so well after leaving Tom Brady. Oh, wait. And there's no offensive skill. They're a middle-of-the-pack MAC team when it comes to talent at the moment, and it's only going to get worse. And that's more than I care to say about that repugnant program.

Purdue - You know, there's a lot of talk about how Purdue has all this speed and have three QB's and can't possibly be crippled by injuries yet again. What's forgotten is that none of those QB's are anything better than average, and the team is coached by Danny Hope, who gets a pass from the media for reasons that escape me. A losing record in that division says something.

Wisconsin - Winners of the Big 12 North...I mean the Pac-12 South...unlike the 90's, this time when they've backed into the Rose Bowl they've played real teams that are well-coached, instead of Bob Toledo and UCLA. Simple schedule thanks to the 86ing of Penn State, the Horrible Kits Bowl at Nebraska being the lone loss I see.

2012 Predictions: Big East

Anyone who says they can predict this conference with confidence is a liar.

Cincinnati - Gets 3 of the projected top 5 in conference at home. Also plays two FCS teams.

Connecticut - Plays three MAC teams this season, which is good because they are probably a MAC talent right now.

Louisville - 11-1 is possible. So is 7-5 (5 road losses). Sums up the conference as a whole.

Pittsburgh - A team. Has Ray Graham. Probably better suited to Paul Chryst than Todd Graham.

Rutgers - Kurt Flood is too good a recruiter to be another Terry Shea. A return to the pre-Schiano doldrums is unlikely.

South Florida - I think Skip Holtz is pretty overrated as a coach. There’s no way that team should have cratered like it did over the last half of 2011, and their 5-7 record was flattering given how many points Notre Dame failed to score in the opener last year.

Syracuse - Probably more talented than their record will show. A brutal schedule, going 1-4 in the noncon and traveling to 3 of the projected top 5 in conference. The Carrier Dome is an advantage, in that teams can totally fall asleep on their visit.

Temple - I have a soft spot for them during their recent resurgence and probably have them doing better than most (and am probably more down on Penn State than most), but I think they can get 6 wins from their throwback 11-game schedule.

2012 Predictions: ACC

Hello again.

I'm expecting a wide open season this year. My preview will begin with predicting the ACC, and we'll run down each conference before the season starts on August 30th, along with bowl projections and how my ratings will break down the predictions. Today, we begin with the ACC.

* - Team is ineligible for the postseason. We'll be seeing this quite a bit.

Same top three in the Atlantic as last year. Florida State wins the tiebreaker due to having the better overall record, if I read the ACC tiebreakers correctly.

BC - End of the line for Spaz. Step back on defense and a moribund offense.

Clemson - Always a hard team to trust. I don’t think their defense was as bad as the 70 points they gave up at the end of last season, but I think they played over their heads during their undefeated start last year.

Duke - Ghastly road schedule and they draw the top two teams from the Atlantic division.

Florida State - They’re back, right? Difficult trips to Raleigh and Blacksburg loom, the latter on a Thursday night at Lane Stadium. Yikes.

Georgia Tech - The usual ho-hum 8-win regular season Better than Chan Gailey’s ho-hum 6-win regular seasons.

Maryland - A team lacking identity and cohesion right now. 25 transfers will do that. Edsall and Locksley seems like oil and water to me. A desperate hire.

Miami (FL) - Al Golden can squeeze 6 wins out of this team. It’s better than what he had at Temple and the ACC is not that difficult. Late October-early November is rough though, and will the motivation continue to be there with no bowl possible?

North Carolina - Defense will take a step back while the offense will put up numbers once the scheme becomes familiar. I predict Fedora will be a bigger success than Butch Davis ever was here.

Virginia, NC State and Wake Forest are essentially the same, well-coached, nonde-script team that could win anywhere from 6-9 games.

Virginia Tech - Last year I picked them to go undefeated in the regular season due to their soft schedule and wasn’t far off. A trip to Clemson seems like it will go wrong for them this year. Another year where they will flatter to deceive and come up empty during the postseason.

Florida State will win the rematch in the conference championship game over Virginia Tech.

Been Busy

I'll be back soon.

2010 PRI Ratings

To celebrate completing the template for the upcoming 2012 season, here's a look back at 2010.





2010 was an interesting season. UTEP set a record by being the lowest bowl participant, beating out the low standard of 2008 Memphis. They were deservedly trounced in the New Mexico Bowl by BYU.

Auburn was a deserving champion, taking advantage of having the right player, Cam Newton, having a great season during a pretty poor year for the SEC. It's interesting, everyone talks about how Boise or some other mid-major would fail to compete in the SEC and their reputation of being a tougher schedule, but how would Auburn or Oregon have done with a more difficult schedule like the one Boise faced. It's a two way street.

The follies of the BCS, which despite the media's attention go well beyond the BCS Title Game, were illustrated this year. 1) The Big East AQ status, as Connecticut finished very low but got to the Fiesta Bowl because someone had to. 2) The use of BCS standings as conference tie-breakers, in which we look no further than my alma mater Michigan State who were not only screwed by losing later than either Wisconsin or Ohio State (an illogical determination if you think about it) but by the fielding of ineligible players by Ohio State.

It's pretty amazing how much has changed in 15 months since these ratings were finalized, between the conference realignment and the ousting of stalwart coaches.

2011 Final PRI Ratings

Figured out Google Docs new interface finally.

My final ratings are expanded from the week to week, showing each team's strength of schedule, final BCS ranking, final AP ranking and whether or not they made a bowl, with a bold X standing for a BCS berth. Please remember that these were completed using regular season games only, no conference championships or bowl results are included.

This table is sorted by a team's difference in rating from the first week (Week 6) to the last (Week 14), and also includes their average rating throughout the season.

If you are interested in how the teams did sorted by average this year:

Alabama ends up slightly better than LSU, which is surprising.

I appreciate your page views during this inaugural blogging year. Posting will be infrequent over the off-season, but will still happen as I have applied these rankings to previous years, currently as far back as 2003. The goal will be to release two years per month, probably beginning in March or so. As a preview, here is a list of teams who finished outside of my top 50, yet made the BCS anyways from 2003-11:

2003 Kansas State 77th

2004 Pittsburgh 51st

2005 Florida State 70th

2008 Virginia Tech 53rd

2010 Connecticut 71st

2011 Wisconsin 53rd

Bowl-o-rama, Day 17

And so it ends.  This one is for all the insurance.  Let's see if I can pick this matchup right this time:

Alabama -2.5 v. LSU

Bowl Season:  15-19

Bowl-o-rama, Day 16

Pick'em time:

MAACO Bowl:  Arkansas State -1 v. Northern Illinois

This is the MAACO Bowl, right?

Bowl Season:  14-19

Edit:  It's the GoDaddy Bowl.  Whatever.

Bowl-o-rama, Day 15

BBVA Compass Bowl:  Pittsburgh -3.5 v. SMU

Bowl Season:  14-19

Bowl-o-rama, Day 14

I was right about not feeling good about that Clemson pick.  Mount 500 ain't happening, how about a war at .333?

Cotton:  Arkansas -9 v. Kansas State

Bowl Season:  13-19

Bowl-o-rama, Day 13

Down with this sort of thing:

Orange:  Clemson -3 v. West Virginia

Picking Clemson?  Yeesh.

Bowl Season:  13-18

Bowl-o-rama, Day 12

Good thing these games start late.

Sugar:  Michigan -3 v. Virginia Tech

Bowl season:  12-18.

The summit of Mount .500 looks awfully high.

Bowl-o-rama, Day 11

Happy quasi-New Year's Day.

Ticket City Bowl:  Houston -7.5 v. Penn State

Outback Bowl:  Georgia -3 v. Michigan State

Capital One Bowl:  South Carolina -3 v. Nebraska

Gator Bowl:  Florida -2 v. Ohio State

Rose:  Oregon -6 v. Wisconsin

Fiesta:  Oklahoma State -4.5 v. Stanford

Can't really pick against the Gators in the Gator Bowl can you?