2013 PRI Ratings, Week 9

Very surprised to see that the correlation between rating and schedule strength actually get worse instead of better as the season moves forward.

All correlations between the three ratings systems improved this week.

Cincinnati's SOS is the lowest I've ever seen.

Duke's big win at Virginia Tech moved them up 33 places, the largest gain of the week.  Adding Abilene Christian to the schedule dropped New Mexico State 47 places.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Stone Cold Lock Of The Week, Week 9

This season is tanking faster than Louisville in the second quarter.

Ohio State -15 v. Penn State

Ohio State is a flawed team, particularly when they don't have the ball, but I like Penn State's defense on the road even less.

Last week:  LSU -10 @ Mississippi (incorrect)

Season:  3-4-1

2013 PRI Ratings, Week 8

Central Florida predictably remains number 1 this week.  Displaying a willingness to go on the road and playing a half decent schedule should be rewarded.  Radical concept, I know.  Otherwise, you end up like Wisconsin.

All correlations involving the PRI remained essentially the same.  S&P and Colley disagree more this week.

Biggest gain from Week 7:  Iowa State, which despite getting crushed by Baylor, gained 36 places.
Biggest loss from Week 7:  ULM, 52 places

For Entertainment Purposes Only Stone Cold Lock Of The Week, Week 8

LSU -10 @ Mississippi.

Mississippi's season is cratering like my lock of the week has the last few weeks, and they are just decimated by injuries.  I like LSU to score enough to cover here, even if the line has skyrocketed since it opened.

Last week:  Northern Illinois -23 v. Akron (incorrect)

Season:  3-3-1

2013 PRI Ratings, Week 7

The first official ratings of the season.  Central Florida #1?  That's a weird one...

A new feature this year will be including correlations as a way to better explain the results.

1.  Rankings-to-Schedule Strength
2.  Rankings-to-Road Win total (check back tomorrow)
3.  Rankings-to-S&P comparison (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaa)
4.  Rankings-to-Colley Matrix comparison (http://www.colleyrankings.com/)
5.  S&P-to-Colley

The former two can be found on the PRI Sheet, the latter 3 on the Comparsion Sheet

Overall, I'm pleased that there is a general positive correlation with both the S&P and Colley formulas, and it will be interesting to see if there's improvement as the season continues.

For Entertainment Purposes Only Stone Cold Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Yes, it's already week 7.

Northern Illinois -23 v. Terry Bowden's Akron

This is a large spread, but NIU has outscored Akron 38-10 in their last three meetings.  You also don't just walk into DeKalb and expect to keep it close if you're Akron.

Last week:  Oklahoma -9 v. TCU (incorrect, back door cover)

Season:  3-2-1

For Entertainment Purposes Only Lock Of The Week, Week 6

I am making this pick on the road this week. I pick the games involving top 25 teams just for fun and this week, boy, am I taking a lot of chalk.

Oklahoma -9 v. Texas Christian

A couple of stout defenses will be on the field in Norman, but having seen a lot of Treyvone Boykin, I wonder how TCU is going to score 10 points in any game. Ponderous and inefficient don't mix well together.

Last week: Miami (FL) -18.5 v. South Florida (correct)

Season: 4-1-1