For Entertainment Purposes Lock Of The Week - Week 1

Looking for my third consecutive 10-win season.  Let's start with:

Georgia -38 v. Buffalo.  I don't like laying all those points early in the season, but Buffalo is pretty awful.

Last season:  10-4

2012 Predictions: Projected Ratings & Bowl Projections

The always interesting Pittsfield Ratings Index ratings and schedule strength rankings are now available! Not much to say, since every prediction needs to be accurate for these ratings to be correct. My bowl predictions, best I can decipher, follow. Despite the postseason bans for 5 teams, I still had 72 teams to fill up all those games, which will arrive sooner than you think.

FOOTBALL TOMORROW!

2012 Predictions: SEC

LSU over Georgia, just like last year. LSU defeats Alabama in Red Stick on November 3rd, but loses the regular season finale at Arkansas in the sort of wacky rivalry game John L. Smith usually wins. I think they also make the BCS title game. Can a repeat of last year happen? Absolutely, since I don't think Alabama falls too far in the polls after the loss to LSU. Great system.

As for the rest:

Arkansas - In picking this team this year, my mantra was "when in doubt, bet against John L.".

Auburn - Chizik decides to blow up the system on both sides of the ball after Malzahn left. While the defense will be an improvement (Who would hire Ted Roof anymore? Oh right, Penn State), trying to install a pro-style offense with players recruited to the spread and no every down back apparent is a real tall order for a team in the SEC West.

Florida - Speaking of no offense. It's a good thing they play in the SEC East (boy, I could write that a lot) and even then, a winning record is far from assured.

Georgia - This team, even with no proven RB, could go undefeated, but I'm sure they'll find a way to cock up the Florida game.

Kentucky - An offense that puts Florida's in perspective. When you begin to have a talent deficit in relation to the rest of the conference, your slide is fast. See also:

Mississippi - This program has fallen a long way since the baffling ranking of #4 in the AP poll back in 2009. Hugh Freeze is a good hire, but getting this team back to bowl eligibility anytime soon looks like a tall order.

Mississippi State - Whoa, 10-2 Mississippi State?! That was my reaction too, but they have a cupcake nonconference schedule, have their two non Alabama/LSU road games in conference at the two worst teams in the conference, and have every other conference game with teams around their level in Starkville. It's a shaky 10, but it's still 10.

Missouri - I think this team is pretty well-equipped for the SEC. Good offensive skill and a quality defense. Plus, Columbia in November isn't exactly a tropical paradise in what's already an out-of-the-way trip for the rest of the SEC.

South Carolina - That defense is nasty, and the division title comes down to that defense against Georgia in what's usually an entertaining game. If Spurrier could find where ever he misplaced his balls, this team would be unstoppable.

Tennessee - I wonder who Tennessee is going to hire this off-season. Hopefully it quells the rage of Derek Dooley's mother. 7 wins isn't going to cut it.

Texas A&M - A tale of two halves for the Aggies. The first half of the season is most doable. The back half is pretty ugly with three straight division road games. No bye week either, as the LaTech opener was postponed to October on the day of this writing.

Vanderbilt - I love what James Franklin has brought to Vanderbilt. That's right, 8 wins. Could be 9, they get Florida at home. Next post has projected ratings if EVERYTHING goes according to my predictions, plus my best crack at what the bowls will look like. We'll all have a good laugh in December.

2012 Predictions: Pac 12

I like Oregon, after losing at USC on November 3rd, to win the rematch in Los Angeles about a month later. I just don't think you can outscore Oregon twice in such a short time frame. Plus, Kelly is among the best at making adjustments in game. A month is an awful long time for him to scheme.

Arizona Schools - One school made a better hire for the long-term than the other, but neither coach has much to work with this season.

California - Does anyone else have anything to say about Cal, other than Keenan Allen is good, but that his half-brother can't get him the ball unless he rolls out to his left. Does Tedford get fired after 6-6? Can Cal hire anyone better?

Colorado - Losing all of your skill players due to graduation or injury isn't helping things in Boulder. Playing the top of the conference back-to-back-to-back is just piling on.

Oregon State - They stayed in place while everyone else has improved their coaching staff, talent, facilities, or all three. Might be like the old days, rooted to the basement in perpetuity.

Stanford - Yes, an obvious step back with the departure of Luck. Still more talented than the rest of the conference. Recruiting well for a series of years will do that.

UCLA - At least Jim Mora Jr. didn't take out an ad in the LA Times, so he's ahead of Neuheisel at this point. Just don't trust this team to be better than .500.

Utah - Their 10-win total is less a statement about them but more their division, which is Big 12 North level of putrid. Still, a very good defense and I predict they'll beat USC in Salt Lake City on a Thursday night. And then lose the next week at UCLA.

Washington - Yes they have Keith Price. They also have no Chris Polk and no defense. Getting Arizona and Colorado as two of the teams from the other division helps.

Washington State - Mike Leach makes bowl games. Truthfully, they weren't that far off last season. Colorado, Cal and UCLA traveling to Pullman should mean 3 wins.

2012 Predictions: Non-AQ

Presented with little comment

* - Central Florida ineligible for postseason. SMU over East Carolina in conference championship game.

8-4 is a best case for Notre Dame this season. I project losses to Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC. Losses to Purdue and Stanford are not out of the question either. Brian Kelly's face is going to be red if that happens.

Ohio over Western Michigan in conference championship game.

Yes, that's right. I am predicting Boise to not win their conference for the first time in years. Trips to both Nevada and Wyoming present a bit of a stumbling block.

Disagree? Then perhaps you can help me refine this conference. Admittedly, always a bit of a mystery to me.

No, Larry Coker isn't a miracle worker. UTSA plays a lot of 1-AA opponents and even a Division II (Texas A&M-Commerce) team this season. I anticipate they'll be a mainstay at the foot of the ratings table this season.

2012 Predictions: Big 12

The deepest conference in the game.

If I have interpreted the Big 12 tiebreakers correctly, here's how Oklahoma State wins the conference:

- Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State, Oklahoma State defeats West Virginia, West Virginia defeats Oklahoma, so the teams are 1-1 against each other

- The rules stipulate that you then look at the records of the next highest finisher, in this case TCU. OkState and West Virginia defeat TCU, Oklahoma does not.

-With Oklahoma eliminated, the head to head results gives Oklahoma State the title.

Needless to say, all three teams are pretty even. As for the rest:

Baylor - If I were a Baylor fan, the departure of RGIII doesn't concern me, which is a credit to the job Art Briles has done in building that program from nothing. I'd be concerned when Briles eventually moves on.

Iowa State - I hate picking against Paul Rhoads to make a bowl. You just know that he's going to wreck your season when you visit sleepy Ames on the banks of the Skunk River. OU and WVA should beware.

Kansas - I don't care how big your schematic advantage is, you need talent to compete. Dayne Crist on a lesser team doesn't seem like a particularly good recipe to me.

Kansas State - I saw K-State in Austin last year. I have a hard time thinking of a less likely 10-win team than that squad with their dime store offense. Still, it's unwise to bet against Bill Snyder and bowl eligibility.

Texas Christian - I just came back from visiting their refurbished stadium. Very impressive. This is a good squad and a sound defensive team in this conference is going to make some noise. Tough end of season, though.

Texas - The defense is BCS championship worthy, but in true Mack Brown fashion, he's wishy-washy when it comes to making a decision on his starting QB. David Ash threw some of the worst passes I've ever seen as a freshman (and I've seen Stanley Jackson), and Case McCoy lacks the talent and the upside of his brother. That's going to hold this team back, short of the 10 wins many pundits are predicting.

Texas Tech - The curse of Mike Leach continues. They'll need several upsets to become bowl eligible and that's a tall task in this conference especially with a defense that was atrocious last year.

2012 Predictions: Big 10

Disclaimer 1: I went to Michigan State.

Disclaimer 2: I don't use those pretentious division names.

Disclaimer 3: I am, like most everyone with a brain, not a big fan of Penn State at the moment.

With that out of the way:

* - Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible for post-season play.

Wisconsin over Michigan in the conference title game. Michigan strikes me as a poor match up for Wisconsin.

Illinois - Always has talent, and a schedule that lends itself to 8-9 wins. Better coached than in previous seasons, Zook or no Zook.

Indiana - Well, there's no where to go but up from last year, right? Perhaps they beat Ball State this time. A conference win appears to be a year away.

Iowa - Another cushy schedule. Could win more games if they can figure out why Northwestern is their bogey team. No running game that we know of, but Vandenberg, if nothing else, won't turn the ball over (25 TD to 7 INT last season).

Michigan - Two difficult trips in conference are somewhat mitigated by Michigan State visiting Ann Arbor. I don't think Michigan is the better team, but I just have a gut feeling they're due in the rivalry, you know? However, at Notre Dame and at Purdue have not been easy trips for the coaching tree that Hoke comes from. 7-5 is possible.

Michigan State - Roles reversed with Michigan this year: no conference title game, but a BCS appearance is certain if the prediction is correct, at Michigan and at Wisconsin being the lone losses I see. With that defense, nothing is a sure loss on their schedule. I expect questions about the passing game to be answered quickly.

Minnesota - Jerry Kill gets this team into a bowl game in his second season. They can get two wins in conference. The game at home v. Purdue is the key game for both teams' post-season hopes, and I'll go with Kill and MarQuise Gray. He may not be the best thrower, but the dude's a horse.

Nebraska - One day the media is going to catch up on the fact that Nebraska doesn't play in the Big 12 North anymore. Or that they lost their talent pipeline to Texas. Or that Martinez is a better javelin thrower. Or that they're coached by Pelini. Solich wouldn't have lost at home to Northwestern, I'll tell you that much.

Northwestern - Another year, another 6-7 win season, another bowl appearance without a win. Better than when they laked the posts at any rate.

Ohio State - The only reason that team goes 6-7 last year was due to the suspensions. It's still Ohio State, there's still plenty of talent there. I'm not in love with Urban like the fawning media types, but he's going to win at least 9-10 games a year in Columbus, considering how dire that division is.

Penn State - Coaches that were offensive coordinators for New England have done so well after leaving Tom Brady. Oh, wait. And there's no offensive skill. They're a middle-of-the-pack MAC team when it comes to talent at the moment, and it's only going to get worse. And that's more than I care to say about that repugnant program.

Purdue - You know, there's a lot of talk about how Purdue has all this speed and have three QB's and can't possibly be crippled by injuries yet again. What's forgotten is that none of those QB's are anything better than average, and the team is coached by Danny Hope, who gets a pass from the media for reasons that escape me. A losing record in that division says something.

Wisconsin - Winners of the Big 12 North...I mean the Pac-12 South...unlike the 90's, this time when they've backed into the Rose Bowl they've played real teams that are well-coached, instead of Bob Toledo and UCLA. Simple schedule thanks to the 86ing of Penn State, the Horrible Kits Bowl at Nebraska being the lone loss I see.

2012 Predictions: Big East

Anyone who says they can predict this conference with confidence is a liar.

Cincinnati - Gets 3 of the projected top 5 in conference at home. Also plays two FCS teams.

Connecticut - Plays three MAC teams this season, which is good because they are probably a MAC talent right now.

Louisville - 11-1 is possible. So is 7-5 (5 road losses). Sums up the conference as a whole.

Pittsburgh - A team. Has Ray Graham. Probably better suited to Paul Chryst than Todd Graham.

Rutgers - Kurt Flood is too good a recruiter to be another Terry Shea. A return to the pre-Schiano doldrums is unlikely.

South Florida - I think Skip Holtz is pretty overrated as a coach. There’s no way that team should have cratered like it did over the last half of 2011, and their 5-7 record was flattering given how many points Notre Dame failed to score in the opener last year.

Syracuse - Probably more talented than their record will show. A brutal schedule, going 1-4 in the noncon and traveling to 3 of the projected top 5 in conference. The Carrier Dome is an advantage, in that teams can totally fall asleep on their visit.

Temple - I have a soft spot for them during their recent resurgence and probably have them doing better than most (and am probably more down on Penn State than most), but I think they can get 6 wins from their throwback 11-game schedule.

2012 Predictions: ACC

Hello again.

I'm expecting a wide open season this year. My preview will begin with predicting the ACC, and we'll run down each conference before the season starts on August 30th, along with bowl projections and how my ratings will break down the predictions. Today, we begin with the ACC.

* - Team is ineligible for the postseason. We'll be seeing this quite a bit.

Same top three in the Atlantic as last year. Florida State wins the tiebreaker due to having the better overall record, if I read the ACC tiebreakers correctly.

BC - End of the line for Spaz. Step back on defense and a moribund offense.

Clemson - Always a hard team to trust. I don’t think their defense was as bad as the 70 points they gave up at the end of last season, but I think they played over their heads during their undefeated start last year.

Duke - Ghastly road schedule and they draw the top two teams from the Atlantic division.

Florida State - They’re back, right? Difficult trips to Raleigh and Blacksburg loom, the latter on a Thursday night at Lane Stadium. Yikes.

Georgia Tech - The usual ho-hum 8-win regular season Better than Chan Gailey’s ho-hum 6-win regular seasons.

Maryland - A team lacking identity and cohesion right now. 25 transfers will do that. Edsall and Locksley seems like oil and water to me. A desperate hire.

Miami (FL) - Al Golden can squeeze 6 wins out of this team. It’s better than what he had at Temple and the ACC is not that difficult. Late October-early November is rough though, and will the motivation continue to be there with no bowl possible?

North Carolina - Defense will take a step back while the offense will put up numbers once the scheme becomes familiar. I predict Fedora will be a bigger success than Butch Davis ever was here.

Virginia, NC State and Wake Forest are essentially the same, well-coached, nonde-script team that could win anywhere from 6-9 games.

Virginia Tech - Last year I picked them to go undefeated in the regular season due to their soft schedule and wasn’t far off. A trip to Clemson seems like it will go wrong for them this year. Another year where they will flatter to deceive and come up empty during the postseason.

Florida State will win the rematch in the conference championship game over Virginia Tech.