2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

Louisville -13.5 v. Kentucky

Rivalry week is a tough week to forecast, so I'll take a quality defense against a middling team in a division won by Indiana.

Last week:

Maryland @ Michigan Total Points:  43 (correct)

Missouri @ Tennessee Total Points:  49 (incorrect)

Under on both.  Lost by one point on the latter game.

Season:  7-12-1

2014 Week 13 Ratings

It does give off some wonky ratings some times, but at least I don't rely on this garbage:

"Jeff Long just said the committee takes into account that some of Mississippi State's wins came against teams previously ranked."

Meet the new boss.

2014 Lock Of The Week Week 13

Maryland @ Michigan Total Points:  43

Missouri @ Tennessee Total Points:  49

Under on both.  Tennessee might have the best offense of the four teams above, and they face a stout Mizzou defense.  The weather will be pretty putrid in Ann Arbor to boot.

 

Last week: Miami (FL) -2.5 v. Florida State (correct)

Season: 6-11-1

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 12

Hilarious Texas rating!  No, there isn't a "plays six games in my hometown" bonus.

That Maryland rating is pretty funny too, even moreso when they rank above the SEC favorites after the SEC/FCS challenge this coming weekend.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

We trudge on.

Florida State -2.5 @ Miami (FL)

Despite my new strategy, I'm still picking results I think would happen.  This line is preposterous and I will gladly take Florida State at such a short price.

Season:  5-11-1

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 11

Strange to see Oklahoma as our massively overrated team of 2014.

Big wins have moved some schools up into the upper tier of things.  Might make me reconsider my stance on Arizona State and Ohio State, but boy did they suffer a bad loss when they lost.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

Arizona State -2.5 v. Notre Dame

Two clown frauds meet in the desert.  I trust Notre Dame for two reasons:  coaching advantage favors ND and the last time Arizona State played teams that have something resembling a offense, they gave up 100 combined over back-to-back weeks.  Give up 66 to UCLA?  Bet the other way.

Last week:

Georgia v. Florida total points 47 under

Kansas State -11.5 v. Oklahoma State

Season:  5-10-1.  Who would have thought Florida could score 38 in a SEC game?

2014 PRI Ratings, Week 10

Now with the PRI+ performance metric.  This calculation lessens the impact of schedule strength has more emphasis on record and a margin of victory component.  You can see the difference between the two formulas on the Delta+ tab.

I expect a sizeable fall for the Mississippi schools next week, both of whom have FCS opposition on the docket this week.

2014 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

Georgia v. Florida total points 47 under

Kansas State -11.5 v. Oklahoma State

Two of the teams above lack a offense, making these smart plays. 

 

Last week:

Mississippi State -15 @ Kentucky

Michigan @ Michigan State total points 48.5 under

Syracuse @ Clemson total points 47.5 under

2-1 last week means 4-9-1 for the season.  Clawing back to respectability.