2018-19 Bowl Picks

Updated as the bowling goes on.

2018 Final PRI Ratings

The "EFF" calculation factors in a team's offensive and defensive efficiencies via ESPN FPI and lessens the schedule strength component somewhat.

This definitely was a year where more than just the raw calculations were required.  At first I thought the struggle was with the perception that there was a glut of mediocrity this year.  However, comparing to 2017, we had about as many 9 win teams and teams with 5-7 wins then as we do today, so I think it was more instead of having 45-50 teams evenly spread across college football, you still had the same # of teams but had 18-20 of those teams concentrated in the ACC Coastal, Big Ten West and Pac-12 South.

I'm concerned about how the inevitable 8-team playoff is going to shake itself out.  Given that the seemingly obvious Power 5 champions/Best Group of 5/2 at-large is imperfect and has obvious pratfalls (aka The Rose Bowl Question), will the committee keep largely the same system in place and just flesh out the field with whatever SEC teams look the best?  9-3 Florida, with two wins over FCS teams, getting in to the NY6 over 10-2 Washington State (who were robbed against USC) is a bit of a joke.  And is Central Florida really the best G5 representative?  The American was dreadful this year, and I think Fresno State would give them a competitve game if not win outright.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

For the final time this year.  With a winning season as far as the lock is concerned, I'd like to not go 0-7 this week.

Georgia +13 v. Alabama

13 is a lot of points between two teams that are pretty evenly matched, and Georgia will be in front of a partial crowd.

Last week: LSU +3.5 @ Texas A&M (correct)

Lock:  7-5-1
Season 117-113-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 13

So of the contenders for the 4-seed, it is all very narrow between Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama, the latter's contendership would be due to losing on Saturday of course.  The debate between Oklahoma and Ohio State doesn't really interest me;  I don't have strong feelings on the inclusion of one team over another.

Now...Alabama losing close essentially on the road and the other two winning conference championships comfortably?  That would put the cat amongst the pigeons, and I would try to figure out some sort of update before Sunday noon.  Final ratings will be out after Army-Navy.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

Thank you for your viewing this season.

LSU +3.5 @ Texas A&M

In a defensive struggle, I'm going to go with the better defense even on the road.

Last week: Utah State -28 v. Colorado State (incorrect)

Lock:  6-5-1
Season 108-103-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 12

PRI+ seems to be a more accurate rating this season, at least this week.

That was a big road win for Wisconsin.

Alabama wasn't punished for their SoCon Challenge game as much as they have been in previous years.

Texas State rises off of the foot of the table..and then fires their coach?

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Not a whole lot appeals this week, both as a gambler and as a viewer.  Surprisingly, next week also doesn't offer a whole lot either.

Utah State -28 v. Colorado State

I've seen Colorado State play a couple times this year, including last week.  Their defense is dreadful.  I'll take the class of the Mountain West at home.

Last week: Syracuse -21 v. Louisville (correct)

Lock:  6-4-1
Season 99-93-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 11

Barring some unforeseen upset, and given next week's slate it would be very much unforeseen, I don't think we're going to see much change to the consolidation of positions of any team one might consider for the top 4.

The exception to that is this surge by Ohio State.  Considered dead and buried after getting housed by Purdue, a 1-loss Big Ten champion Buck-Eye squad will merit some playoff consideration, and these numbers will look upon them very favorably.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

So the lock has gone south as the overall picks have gone north.  I'm looking to an unusual place to arrest this slide:

Syracuse -21 v. Louisville

Syracuse might be looking ahead to Notre Dame next weekend, but Louisville is bloody awful and I don't think a second straight road game, this time in a parking garage in Syracuse, is going to help matters.

Last week: Utah -7 @ Arizona State (incorrect)

Lock:  5-4-1
Season 88-86-3

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 10

Week 10 adds the performance metric.  I've changed how I've done the calculations, the differences are less severe than previous years.  However, the calculations are now way easier so that may be part of the suite of results from the start next season.  I'm working on how to calculate the efficiency metric as well.  I'm getting to be like Sagarin here.

How high does Alabama climb before their inevitable fall after Week 12's SoCon challenge?  Also, with games against Lafayette and Colgate on deck, we will be saying farewell to Army from the top 10, although the latter game is actually one of the more fascinating clashes of a pedestrian week 12 seeing as Colgate has allowed 6 points their last 7 games, and none in their last three.

Alabama/Clemson/Notre Dame/Michigan seems like a safe bet for the playoff four if the latter two win out (I don't think there's much question about the former two).  Michigan v. 1-loss Big 12 is an interesting debate comparing resumes, but ultimately it's going to be a subjective evaluation of who "looks" like a better team.  WVA is really getting hurt so far by that cancelled game at North Carolina State.  A win there would have them up in my top 25 instead of mired in the 40s.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

22 games to choose!  I think that might be some sort of record.  And no obvious locks stand out.  To wit:

Utah -7 @ Arizona State

Going with a Utah team that has trended upwards during October, playing an Arizona State team that is poor on defense.  Two things give me pause:

1. Second straight road game for Utah
2. Utah really puts the "no" in November, historically.

But I think 7 points is good value.

Last week: Purdue +2 @ Michigan State (incorrect)

Lock:  5-3-1

Season 76-77-3

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 9

I wonder what sort of surge Wazoo would have (up huge this week) if they win out and win the Pac-12 as a one loss team.

As we move into November and get the inevitable tedious (and dishonest) discussion of "who has the better resume", it's a discussion that is as clear as mud this year and more opaque than in previous years.  By the end of the month, you're going to be deciding between a bunch of teams whose "best win" is probably going to be someone with 2-4 losses.  Conference title games this year are going to be less likely to offer more clarity as some of these divisions are real dross.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Purdue +2 @ Michigan State

Let's look at things in a vacuum:

Team A is on the ascent with aggressive play calling (a in-season adjustment), is generally healthy, but with the caveat they are coming off a huge win at home against the #2 team in the country and must go on the road

Team B is crippled by injuries to any group of offensive playmakers you choose, may not have their starting QB, the OL is beat up, as is the secondary.  Plus the playcalling is unimaginative and pedestrian.

Now consider that team A's offensive philosophy is tailor-made to take advantage of the weaknesses of Team B's defensive schemes.

And team A is getting points?  This is a no-brainer.

Last week: Oklahoma -8 @ TCU (correct)

Lock:  5-2-1

Season 65-70-3

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 8

Northwestern and their success on the road are really the kingmaker so far.

If you look at the predicitons I sent back in August, I had Georgia losing at LSU, and Ohio State losing at Purdue.  My prognostication then was:

>I believe the Committee would select:  Clemson, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame

And if we get:

13-0 Clemson

12-1 Georgia (SEC champ)

12-1 Alabama (loses to Georgia in the SECCG)

12-0 Notre Dame (funny how the lack of a "13th data point" doesn't hurt them!)

I still think those four end up being your playoff.  Obviously, still a ways to go, with the most anticipated Cocktail Party in years, Alabama/LSU, and Notre Dame with trips to the aforementioned Northwestern and USC, although the latter looks like they're toast.

I do think a debate between 12-1 Big Ten Champion and 12-1 Big 12 champion would be an interesting one, and one that probably wouldn't have a wrong answer.  Central Florida is well on the outside looking in if they finish undefeated despite what would be a 25 game winning streak.  Again, and also through no real fault of their own, that schedule isn't good enough.  The good news if you're looking for such a thing:  a four-team playoff that omits all three teams mentioned in this paragraph probably leads to playoff expansion sooner rather than later.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

Top 25 sportbook favorites have taken an absolute beating the last two weeks, going 11-23-2.  They have been notoriously slow to react to the reality of certain teams but it's more glaring this year than usual.

Oklahoma -8 @ TCU

Like with so many picks, the question I ask is can a TCU team with injuries at QB, OL and in the secondary keep up with an Oklahoma team that is probably going to score 35+.  An Oklahoma team that had two weeks to stew over a rivalry loss and has improved at DC, although the perception of their defensive struggles are a bit overdone.  TCU is also 2-7 in their last 9 ATS.

Last week: Florida -7 @ Vanderbilt (correct)

Lock:  4-2-1

Season 56-64-3

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 7

(Ignore the delta tab this week)

Well, the Colley Matrix and I agree regarding Notre Dame, who was also #1 around this time last year.  I'm interested to see how their resume holds up going forward with games at top-5 Northwestern and top 20 USC.

Here I was thinking Michigan State was the worst 4-2 team I've ever seen, but had they not cocked it up in the desert against ASU, they'd be number 1 by a substantial margin.  At least other advanced numbers think of them highly, although more in the 15-40 range.

Nice schedule strength, American.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Florida -7 @ Vanderbilt

The books have this at a TD for two reasons, I think:

-Felipe Franks on the road

-A letdown spot after two big wins

However, defense travels, and since Florida's is back to their usual standard, I like that matchup against a Vanderbilt offense that is trending negatively.

Last week: Wisconsin -17 v. Nebraska (push)

Lock:  3-2-1

Season 51-53-3