2016-17 Bowl Picks

This will be updated as the bowl season progresses.

2016 Final Ratings

You'll have to do some scrolling.

So to review:

PRI and PRI+ you're familiar with

Recency weights recent results more

OOC measures a team's non-conference schedule

FCS, on the fourth tab, is what a team's score looks like removing a team's worst opponent.

The set of numbers that struck me the most were the full season SOS numbers, which were about 10% worse than the numbers last season, which makes sense for such a middling season that lacked the chaos we've come to expect from the sport.

Again, I am pleased with the four playoff teams.  Auburn sticks out like a sore thumb for the NY6, but the Sugar's hand is forced for that selection.  What's interesting is five years ago the outcry over a team with Western Michigan's resume not being in the BCS would have been deafening;  you didn't hear a peep about that this year.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

For the final time in a lucrative year:

Navy -2.5 v. Temple

Navy is at home, playing at a very high level and has a chance at it's first conference title.  Temple has an excellent defense as has become their style, but I think Navy is a FG better at home.

Last week:  USC -17 v. Notre Dame (correct)

Season:  9-3-1

Season overall:  119-116-4(-$970, assuming $110 bets)

There will be bowl bets as well.  I'll also pick Army/Navy if Navy remains ranked.

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 13

I'm not going to be the one to argue against Ohio State's resume.

I'm very interested to see what happens to the teams currently sitting 2-10 after the "extra data point" is applied after the conference title games are decided.

Final ratings after Army-Navy.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

USC -17 v. Notre Dame

Another bet against a team that probably would rather be doing anything else than playing USC on Saturday.  Notre Dame has cratered on offense and it's hard to see much scoring from them.  We could be in for another memorable crushing.

Last week:  Nebraska -13 v. Maryland (correct)

Season:  8-3-1

Season overall:  107-112-3(-$1730, assuming $110 bets)

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 12

The SEC/FCS Challenge takes it's usual pre-Thanksgiving weekend toll.

The current top 5 all won road games this week.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Nebraska -13 v. Maryland

This line seems low to me which perhaps should be worrying.  Maryland just appears to have down tools for the season, particularly a defense which has totally collapsed.  Nebraska to win big on Senior Day in Lincoln.

Or perhaps they should be worried because the three teams I considered locking up last week lost, as did Louisville this week.

Last week:  Washington -8.5 v. USC (incorrect)

Season:  7-3-1

Season overall:  94-105-3(-$2260, assuming $110 bets)

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 11

I think Alabama will hold on to #1 even after playing Chattanooga next week.  They are also outperforming the spread by a considerable margin.  I'll be interested to see if anyone can catch them, because their next three opponents aren't great from a numbers standpoint.

I'm curious to see how the committee's final selection will leave most unhappy.  Alabama, and maybe Ohio State now that they seem to be over a mid-season swoon are the only top teams without massive flaws.  That was a real egg laid by Washington.

That big Pitt upset caused a tremendous surge.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

Washington -8.5 v. USC

I think this spread overvaules USC.  During their current five-game winning streak, the only good team they've defeated was Colorado (and imagine that sentence 2 months ago).  Husky Stadium, a redshirt freshman QB and the Washington defense suggests a double-digit Washington victory to me.

Last week:  Baylor -8 v. TCU (incorrect)

Season:  7-2-1

Season overall:  84-94-2 (-$2150, assuming $110 bets)

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 10

PRI + is my performance metric, basically compiled by how a team performed vs how they were expected to perform.  Scroll over to see it.

Washington continues to ascend and has quality teams on their schedule going forward, so I expect their rise to continue.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

I knew Kansas would be my doom.  A monstrous 23 game slate this week might end any hopes of finishing in the black overall this regular season.

Baylor -8 v. TCU

Again, betting against Kenny Hill seems to be a lucrative prospect.

Last week:  Oklahoma -40.5 v. Kansas (correct)

Season:  7-1-1

Season overall:  71-83-2 (-$2140, assuming $110 bets)

2016 PRI Ratings, Week 9

I add the perfomance metric (PRI+) next week.

I was thinking about the Big 12 and their performance this season, and their low placing makes sense.  What's their signature out of conference win?  OkState over Pitt?  WVA over BYU?  Texas over Notre Dame?

To me there is a clear top 5 now, a combination of what I've seen and how the prevailing winds are blowing:  Alabama, Washington, Clemson, Michigan and Ohio State, with the game at the end of the season between the latter two, the Alabama/LSU game and the Apple Cup seemingly the only opportunities to shake things up.  It will be interesting to see if these five consolidate their positions at the top of the ratings, especially Washington whose schedule will improve in November.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Oklahoma -40.5 v. Kansas

I think my undefeated streak comes to an end this weekend.  I just don't trust the Oklahoma defense enough to win by nearly 7 touchdowns, even against a 1-6 team.  Just about every computer projection I've looked at agrees as well.

Last week:  West Virginia -6 v. Texas Christian (correct)
Season:  7-0-1
Season overall:  65-72-2 (-$1530, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Week 8 Ratings

Surprised the Pac-12 is doing so well, and the Big 12 doing so poorly.  I know it's a down year for the latter, but to that degree?

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

West Virginia -6 v. Texas Christian

I'll take the WVU defense at home v. Kenny Hill.

Last week:  Utah - 9 @ Oregon State(correct)
Season:  6-0-1
Season overall:  58-61-1 (-$1570, assuming $110 bets)

2017 Ratings, Week 7

Northwestern is a flawed rating to be sure, due to counting FCS games as null placeholders and nothing more.  I really have never come up with a good penalty for losing to that type of opposition, mainly because teams losing to such competition aren't very good in the first place.  Washington State is proving that not to be the case however.

I find it interesting that in a year where I believe in so few teams that I largely agree with this product so early in the season.

Week-to-week changes are now visible under the Delta tab.  Minnesota up 55 spots and Army down 53 spots are your biggest movers.  Such volatility is common at this part of the season.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

Utah - 9 @ Oregon State

Utah is pretty beat up and while Oregon State isn't all that good, they are improved and their defense can at least be described as mediocre.  Include some pretty squalid weather in Corvallis, and it's hard to see Utah winning by double digits.

Last week:  Texas A&M -6.5 v. Tennessee (correct)
Season:  5-0-1
Season overall:  49-52-1 (-$1480, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Ratings, Week 6

I think this is a good time to release the first batch of ratings:



Schedule strength and road wins dominate at this time of year, which explains Troy at number 9, and generally spots 7-9.  Still, for the first set of this season, these numbers aren't too outlandish.

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

The first batch of ratings will come out next week.

Texas A&M -6.5 v. Tennessee.

Betting Aggie twice in a season is probably the end to my undefeated start.  However, they have a good defense and Tennessee is in the midst of a brutal 4-game stretch.  Entertaining as they may be, the Vols' antics are simply not sustainable.

Last week:  Washington -3.5 v. Stanford (correct)
Season:  4-0-1
Season overall:  38-48-1 (-$1480, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 5

Betting a lot of favorites this week.  Could be lucrative or that chalk will be less than appetizing.

Washington -3.5 v. Stanford.

We return to the Pac-12 Friday Night Game of Record again this week.  I'm not quite sold on Washington just yet, nor is Vegas which is why the line is pretty low.  Stanford is still breaking in a new QB, is missing both their starting CB's and isn't getting the greatest play out of it's OL at the moment.  Second straight road game against a team looking to make a statement is a tough ask.

Last week:  Utah -3 v. USC (correct)
Season:  3-0-1
Season overall:  31-35-1 (-$750, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

Utah -3 v. USC

A RS FR QB making his first start on the road against a nasty defense and coached by Clay Helton.  I'll bet the other way.

Last week:  Oregon +3 @ Nebraska (push). Thanks, Helfrich.
Season:  2-0-1
Season overall:  21-29-1 (-$1090, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

Oregon +3 @ Nebraska

I normally bet the other way with a unranked home favorite v. ranked opposition, but I am at a loss as to explain what exactly the oddsmakers are seeing in Nebraska.  Probably more a statement on Oregon:  that Brady Hoke defense has yet to light the world on fire, but Oregon's main weakness is run defense, and Nebraska has a banged up offensive line that struggles to run the football.

This line suggests the teams are even and I believe Oregon to be superior.  Plus they're getting points.

Last week:  Alabama -28.5 v. Western Kentucky (correct)
Season:  2-0
Season overall:  14-19 (-$690, assuming $110 bets)

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

Pedestrian doesn't begin to describe this week, with a slew of unappetizing choices for the viewer and punter.  I am not confident at all of these picks because of the high spreads involved but I am confident in:

Alabama -29 v. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky is a quality offense that should be able to keep it within 28 points.  I see this cover coming in through the back door as Saban takes his foot off the gas in the second half with a massive revenge spot at Mississippi on deck next week.

Last week:  Texas A&M -3 v. UCLA (correct)
Season:  1-0
Season overall:  7-9 (-$290, assuming $110 bets for each game)

2016 Lock Of The Week, Week 1

This year, you will get all of my weekly picks.  Still only one lock most weeks.




Texas A&M - 3 v. UCLA is the opening selection.  In the Mercurial Bowl, take the home team.  I think the Aggie DL will have it's way with the UCLA OL.  Trouble's a Bruin for Josh Rosen.

Last season:  7-9-1

2016 Predictions

Time to rouse this blog out of its slumber.  Welcome back to the Analytics and Gambling Emporium. Let's get to it. As is usual in the preseason, don't take the ratings too seriously, as one different from what I've picked throws it all off:






If the season were to turn out this way, I believe the Selection Committee would think the following:

Ohio State would be the top team.

LSU would probably enter into Championship Weekend 4th or 5th but rise to 2nd based on their victory over 11-win Tennessee in the SECCG, which will give them 4 wins over 10-win teams (Conference losses @ Arkansas and @ Aggie)

Undefeated Houston 3rd.  This is the perfect year for a token Group of 5 representative in order to show that it is possible to make the playoff.

Notre Dame would be 4th.  They'd probably be #1 going into the USC game, which I have them losing yet still making the playoff because...reasons.  Yes, they are a flawed team defensively, but I just don't see where they are made to pay for those flaws.

That will yield a OSU-LSU final, and I have yet another 2-loss LSU team winning a national title.  Les will probably have his job under threat during the season yet again.

I am way too low on Kansas State, as usual.  Too high on Indiana.

Playoff Final Pick

Alabama -6.5 v. Clemson

Best front 7 in the country v. a offensive line that starts a true freshman.  Clemson's best corner may not play, and Lawson isn't at 100%.

Bowl Season:  18-22

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Day 12

A strong day yesterday.

Gator:  Georgia -6 v. Penn State
Liberty:  Arkansas -12.5 v. Kansas State
Alamo:  Oregon -7 v. TCU
Cactus:  West Virginia -2.5 v. Arizona State

Bowl Season:  17-19

2015 Bowl-O-Rama, Days 9 & 10

Birmingham:  Auburn -4.5 v. Memphis
Belk:  Mississippi State -6 v. North Carolina State
Music City:  Louisville -4.5 v. Texas A&M
Holiday:  USC -3 v. Wisconsin
Peach:  Florida State -7 v. Houston
Orange:  Oklahoma -4 v. Clemson
Cotton:  Alabama -10 v. Michigan State

Bowl Season:  10-14
 

Bowl-O-Rama, Day 11

Outback:  Tennessee -9.5 v. Northwestern
Citrus:  Michigan -4.5 v. Florida
Fiesta:  Ohio State -5.5 v. Notre Dame
Rose:  Stanford -6 v. Iowa
Sugar:  Mississippi -8 v. Oklahoma State

Bowl Season:  13-18