2017 Bowl Picks

These picks will be updated constantly throughout the schedule.

Enjoy.

2017 Final Ratings

In these, you will find:

-A ratings that gives a recency bias

-Out of conference schedule strength

-The delta from the first batch of ratings to the last.  Kansas State improved by 71 places!  Auburn and Florida Atlantic made 61 and 60 spot leaps respectively.

-And an average of all three metrics, unedited, performance and recency.

This was not a good year for the Committee's end product.

I get it, don't get blown out by Iowa (whom I have rated 10th).  But to ignore such tangible assets such as "won the conference that scored the best" and "had the hardest out of conference schedule" in favor of something esoteric like "reputation" or hypothetical on-field results just doesn't sit well with me at all.

And Washington in the NY6 just seems like making up the numbers, although that would probably be the case regardless of their choice.

It doesn't terribly mar what was an excellent season, but the decision-making is a little bit of a sour taste in the mouth.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

A very strange year.  Best I can do with locks is .500, but I'm currently +35 overall.

Boise State -9.5 v. Fresno State

The bevy of rematches this week are making for some difficult choices.  It's hard to trust a team to lay over a touchdown to a team they just lost to by 11 last week, albeit on the road.

Last week:  Virginia Tech -7 @ Virginia (incorrect)

Season:  6-7

2017 Week 12 Ratings

That is one crazy non-adjusted Top 25.

Surprised Alabama stayed steady.

Surprised that 1-2 in both ratings are the same.

Nothing final until after Army-Navy since that game will have an impact on top 5 teams.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

This late season swoon has coincided with a lack of confidence in this point spreads.  It's been like picking NFL games in November.

Virginia Tech -7 @ Virginia

This may be Virginia's best opportunity to win this rivalry game since their last win in 2003.  VT's offense has totally fallen apart in November so I'll take the home dog in a low-scoring affair.

Last week:  USC -16 v. UCLA (incorrect)

Season:  6-6

2017 Week 12 Ratings

A day late, but not a dollar short this week due to travel.  Southern Cupcake Weekend always takes it's toll on southern powers, and this weekend was no different.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Very quickly since I'm on the road.

USC -16 v. UCLA

Last week:  Ohio State -17 v. Michigan State (incorrect)

Season:  6-5

2017 Week 11 Ratings

It finally occurred to me that I should display how the top teams from last week are ranked this week on the Delta tab.  Highly ranked teams playing other highly ranked teams kept the top of the ratings more or less the same.

Delta+ is a much easier way to see the original rankings v. when the performance metric is applied.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 11

For the first time in almost 6 years:

Ohio State -17 v. Michigan State

The last time I picked the alma mater was the 2011 B1G Championship where MSU was +9 against a Wisconsin team they had already beaten.

As a fan, I'm concerned that I am missing something huge here other than Buckeyes and their money soon being parted.  I looked at about 10 computer picks;  all of them have OSU straight up but none by this margin.  The Meyer-Dantonio series is 121-120 in favor of Meyer.  The road team has won the last five games in this series.  You can't run on MSU and OSU gets in trouble when they can't run the ball effectively.

It's just way too many points to give.

Last week:  Oklahoma State -1.5 v. Oklahoma (incorrect)

Season:  6-4

2017 Week 10 Ratings

I can't defend that Florida State ranking.

I added the PRI+ performance metric this week.  Certainly shows why the current Playoff Four are thought of the way they are.  The decision between Clemson and Oklahoma if both teams win out will be a fascinating one.  A two-loss Big Ten champ helps the committee greatly.  I don't think undefeated Central Florida would be considered.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 10

I had been waiting for last week's correction for some time.

Oklahoma State -1.5 v. Oklahoma

A Bedlam shootout.  This spread is far too generous for a team with a defense like Oklahoma's.


Last week:  Memphis -11 v. Tulane (correct)
Season:  6-3

2017 Week 9 Ratings

Oklahoma St's 5 road wins propels them to the top of the table.  They have a chance at 6, in Ames in two weeks.  Of course, so does Iowa State, and I think they are in the driver's seat to garner one of the two spots in the Big 12 Championship game, which is amazing to consider.

A lot of volatility in the middle of the ratings from last week to this, as seen under the Delta tab.

That UTEP schedule is just cruel.

I believe the playoff controversy this year will be between 1-loss Penn State, 2-loss Notre Dame, a two-loss Big 12 champ and whatever the Pac-12 champ, with the latter having the lesser argument.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 9

Memphis -11 v. Tulane

I really like the Memphis offense and while Tulane is improved under Willie Fritz, I don't see how they keep up.

Last week:  West Virginia -9.5 @ Baylor (incorrect)

Season:  5-3

That lock last week looked really good after three quarters...

2017 Week 8 Ratings

Who knew we'd have seen a 1 v 2 matchup already?

Road wins and schedule strength rule the day, which would explain BC, Nebraska and Florida State placing so highly.

Seeing what happens between now and week 11 will be fascinating theatre as there are some top matchups upcoming.

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 8

Ratings are coming after this week.

West Virginia -9.5 @ Baylor

I think betting against a team that has lost it's last 12 regular season games is a good shout.  Road favorite in a shootout considerations notwithstanding.

Last week:  TCU -6 @ Kansas State (correct)
Season:  5-2

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 7

I have a bad feeling about this week.

TCU -6 @ Kansas State

Kenny Hill on the road might be several shades of stupid, but I'm going to pick a team that has been good on both sides of the ball to win over a team that has just been average this season.



Last week:  Washington State -3 at Oregon (correct)
Season:  4-2

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 6

Washington State -3 @ Oregon

The narrowness of this line suggests a letdown after a big win for the Cougars in a loud venue, but this is an experienced squad with a great defensive line.  Oregon is also missing Herbert and possibly Freeman this game.

Last week:  Notre Dame -21 v. Miami (OH) (correct)
Season:  3-2

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 5

Notre Dame -21 v. Miami (OH)

I feel dirty, but I think Notre Dame is more than three touchdowns better than a MAC team.

Last week:  San Diego State -3 at Air Force (correct)

Season:  2-2

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 4

15-4 last week.  That's good!

One of the "4" was my lock.  That's bad.

The frogurt is also cursed.

 

San Diego State -3 at Air Force

A road favorite is concerning, but unlike last week, Air Force will be facing a team that is familiar with it's offense.  Like last week, San Diego State will be facing a team that has trouble in the passing game.

Last week:  Kansas State -4 @ Vanderbilt (incorrect)

Season:  1-2

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 3

Kansas State -4 @ Vanderbilt.

While realizing K-State is on the road, this just seems too low to me.  Vanderbilt has a good defense, but I don't think the offense can keep up.  Oddshark and Massy have this a 12- and 7-point margin, respectively.

Last week:  USC -6 v. Stanford (incorrect)

Season:  1-1

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 2

Picking a lot of favorites.

USC -6 v. Stanford

This is always a tough week because there is a tendency to overreact to Week 1.  If USC had a hard time defending the run against Western, what are their chances against Stanford who had two weeks to prepare and were more impressive than expected against Rice.  Granted, Rice may be total trash.

Last week:  Michigan -5 v. Florida (correct)

Season:  1-0

2017 Lock Of The Week, Week 1

Michigan -5 v. Florida

More suspensions!  A starting freshman QB!  Being less talented than Michigan!  I see Michigan winning by a TD in a game as ugly as their uniforms.

Last season:  9-4-1

2017 Predictions

I had planned to do a lot more in the offseason, but when your computer gets wrecked that sort of puts the kibosh on things.

Thanksgiving weekend will be notable as undefeateds Alabama and Ohio State are upset, and in the latter's case, knocked out of a chance at the playoff.  My Playoff 4:

Alabama

USC

Michigan

Florida State

I chose Florida State as a 2-loss conference champion, as losses to Alabama and at Clemson (depending on manner of course) will probably only count as one loss in the committee's eyes and I think there will be reticence on the committee's part to include Ohio State without a conference title after last year, although they should view each year as a clean slate.  Oklahoma was also considered, but Florida State's marginally stronger schedule gave them an edge.  Wisconsin, losing twice to Michigan and no one else, was not considered.  Undefeated South Florida, with their Charmin-soft schedule, also not considered.

Alabama over USC in the final.  I'm not even sold on USC, but they always start with a talent advantage and this year is looking to be a mediocre season, particularly early on as many teams are either breaking in new quarterbacks, rebuilding their secondary or both.

I have no idea how 7-5 Michigan State rates so high.

2016 Predictions Revisited

Yikes.  Missing a little over 2 games per team is one of my two worst efforts since I started doing this.  2012 was worse, and that was also a pretty poor season checking wiki.  It certainly was for Lennay Kekua.

MSU, Oregon, Notre Dame, the two Mississippis, Wyoming, K-State, TCU and UCLA were the big misses, and I hated the latter three predictions after I had made them.  Wyoming was just a year ahead of schedule I think.