For the last 6-8 weeks, I have been working on adding a performance metric to my football ratings, and I am very pleased to reveal them to you now:
I was not interested in adding a simple margin of victory component, instead creating a calculation that considered:
-who did you play
-what was the expected margin of victory (h/t here: http://www.footballstudyhall.com/picks)
-what was the actual margin of victory
Some selected examples:
Florida
State v. Clemson: Both teams had double digit wins and could be
considered upper echelon teams, or "equals". FSU was expected to win by
4, ended up winning by 37. This results in a big bonus for Florida State, and a big penalty for Clemson.
Florida
State v. Syracuse: An elite team v. a mediocre team. FSU expected to
win by 43, won by 56. Small bonus for FSU, small penalty for Syracuse.
Central Florida v. Temple: Elite v. Poor. UCF expected to win by 30, won only by 3. Big penalty for Central Florida, big bonus for Temple.
I'll
be keeping track of the old and new methods next season (PRI/PRI+)
although the latter will most likely not be calculated until later in the season.
