2018-19 Bowl Picks

Updated as the bowling goes on.

2018 Final PRI Ratings

The "EFF" calculation factors in a team's offensive and defensive efficiencies via ESPN FPI and lessens the schedule strength component somewhat.

This definitely was a year where more than just the raw calculations were required.  At first I thought the struggle was with the perception that there was a glut of mediocrity this year.  However, comparing to 2017, we had about as many 9 win teams and teams with 5-7 wins then as we do today, so I think it was more instead of having 45-50 teams evenly spread across college football, you still had the same # of teams but had 18-20 of those teams concentrated in the ACC Coastal, Big Ten West and Pac-12 South.

I'm concerned about how the inevitable 8-team playoff is going to shake itself out.  Given that the seemingly obvious Power 5 champions/Best Group of 5/2 at-large is imperfect and has obvious pratfalls (aka The Rose Bowl Question), will the committee keep largely the same system in place and just flesh out the field with whatever SEC teams look the best?  9-3 Florida, with two wins over FCS teams, getting in to the NY6 over 10-2 Washington State (who were robbed against USC) is a bit of a joke.  And is Central Florida really the best G5 representative?  The American was dreadful this year, and I think Fresno State would give them a competitve game if not win outright.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 14

For the final time this year.  With a winning season as far as the lock is concerned, I'd like to not go 0-7 this week.

Georgia +13 v. Alabama

13 is a lot of points between two teams that are pretty evenly matched, and Georgia will be in front of a partial crowd.

Last week: LSU +3.5 @ Texas A&M (correct)

Lock:  7-5-1
Season 117-113-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 13

So of the contenders for the 4-seed, it is all very narrow between Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama, the latter's contendership would be due to losing on Saturday of course.  The debate between Oklahoma and Ohio State doesn't really interest me;  I don't have strong feelings on the inclusion of one team over another.

Now...Alabama losing close essentially on the road and the other two winning conference championships comfortably?  That would put the cat amongst the pigeons, and I would try to figure out some sort of update before Sunday noon.  Final ratings will be out after Army-Navy.

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 13

Thank you for your viewing this season.

LSU +3.5 @ Texas A&M

In a defensive struggle, I'm going to go with the better defense even on the road.

Last week: Utah State -28 v. Colorado State (incorrect)

Lock:  6-5-1
Season 108-103-6

2018 PRI Ratings, Week 12

PRI+ seems to be a more accurate rating this season, at least this week.

That was a big road win for Wisconsin.

Alabama wasn't punished for their SoCon Challenge game as much as they have been in previous years.

Texas State rises off of the foot of the table..and then fires their coach?

2018 Lock Of The Week, Week 12

Not a whole lot appeals this week, both as a gambler and as a viewer.  Surprisingly, next week also doesn't offer a whole lot either.

Utah State -28 v. Colorado State

I've seen Colorado State play a couple times this year, including last week.  Their defense is dreadful.  I'll take the class of the Mountain West at home.

Last week: Syracuse -21 v. Louisville (correct)

Lock:  6-4-1
Season 99-93-6